The Olympics are now over, and I am struggling to once again find meaning in my life. Thankfully, for both mine and my wife’s sanity, the WNBA regular season is finally primed to resume this Thursday, after what has felt like ages, to bring me purpose anew. After that month-long break in the action, I felt this a good time to refresh our mental page and talk about the most interesting storylines as we head down the home stretch of the second part of the season.
Rookie of the Year
I thought the Magic-Bird comparisons were a bit of a stretch, but the way Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese’s exceptional play and passionate rivalry have transferred to the WNBA has been both captivating and, much like Magic and Bird, who became avatars for divisions of race and culture, sadly polarizing. Yet rivalries played at the highest levels are the driving mechanism of some of the greatest moments in sports, and there is no doubt that Reese and Clark will continue to provide those moments for us over the course of what look to be impressive and entertaining careers. The WNBA is having a moment, and at the center of that moment are these two luminescent talents. It would seem that the Rookie of the Year award is all but Caitlin Clark’s to lose. Still, the way these two rookies have been performing has been nothing short of revelatory.
Angel Reese CHI: 13.5 ppg (30th), 11.9 rpg (2nd), 4.7 orpg (1st), 40.2% FG, 18.4 PER
At the beginning of the season, I subscribed to the notion that Angel Reese’s struggles to generate offense would hamper her effectiveness in a way that would mitigate her ability to come in and have an immediate impact. I was only half right. The Sky’s phenomenal rookie has struggled in terms of offensive efficiency, shooting just 46.4% from less than 5 feet, where she has gone just 102 for 220 so far this year. And as she steps out, it gets worse, as Reese is shooting just 19.7% from everywhere else on the floor (13 for 66). But for all her limitations in terms of outside shooting and interior finishing, Reese is an absolute menace on the boards. The rookie is in the midst of one of the greatest rebounding seasons in league history. Reese’s 11.92 rebounds per outing trails only A’ja Wilson’s 11.96 this year for the highest per-game average in a season in WNBA history.
I prefer to compare current players to former WNBA players when I can, and in terms of rebounding prowess, Yolanda Griffith is the closest analog for Reese. However, while Griffith was a dominant presence inside because of her size and upper body strength, Reese uses her combination of quickness and ability to leverage her strong lower body, making her immovable when she has position in the paint, in a way that is truly reminiscent of Mr. “fo-fo-fo” himself, Moses Malone. This is especially true with the adept manner in which she tracks down her own misses on the offensive boards. Reese’s 4.7 offensive rebounds per game is first in the league by a wide margin, as she leads her own second-place teammate Kamilla Cardoso by 1.4 offensive boards per game. Now, it of course helps that her Sky team is second to last in the league in shooting percentage—in large part because their two rookies are both shooting below 47% from the field as interior players—but the fact that Reese is posting these kinds of numbers, while competing with a teammate who is a rebounding force herself, only adds to how impressive the rookie has been.
The most exciting thing about all of this where Reese is concerned is that there is so much growth potential in her game. The outside shot may never become great, but she’ll eventually be able to keep teams honest from the midrange, which will only further open up her drive game off the dribble, where her quickness and ability to finish on the move with both hands are currently her best assets. Reese has also shown good passing instincts, so as she and Cardoso continue to become more comfortable with each other, the high-low game for the two will become a potent go-to set for the Sky.
Caitlin Clark IND: 17.1 ppg (15th), 8.2 apg (1st), 5.8 rpg (24th), 40.5% FG, 32.7% 3PT, 2.7 threes per game (5th), 5.6 TOs (1st), 17.3 PER
Caitlin Clark has been just about everything that could have been expected and more. While the shooting percentages, particularly from three, are large drop-offs from what we witnessed during her phenomenal college career, the ways in which she has adapted her game to become the league’s leader in assists is just proof positive of her greatness. Clark faces the type of defensive attention on the perimeter that Angel now gets inside, meaning that defenses are willing to overcommit and sell out on her in positions on the floor that leave them vulnerable. And Clark has continued to get better and better at reading these plays and delivering the ball to her teammates in the right places for them to score. After the Fever started this season by winning just three of their first 13 games, the team has actually played above .500 basketball, going 8-5 over their next 13, with Clark leading the charge by averaging 10.4 assists per game over that 13-game stretch. Clark is currently on pace to set the record for assists per game by a rookie, breaking Ticha Penicheiro’s 24-year mark of 7.5 per game with the Monarchs (bring them back, Sac!) in 1998. Unfortunately, Clark’s turnover numbers are also historic, as she has already set the record for turnovers in a season (138) in just her 25th game of the year, passing the prior record of 137 set by Alyssa Thomas just last season. Indiana fans have to hoping that Clark’s turnover numbers are reminiscent of another great taken first overall, Peyton Manning, who threw an eye-popping 26 interceptions in his inaugural season before becoming one of the most efficient passers in the league. But in reality, she is probably more of a Brett Favre type—high risk, high reward (though Clark is not a reprehensible human being)—as she averaged 4.6 turnovers per game for her four years in college as well. Still, what Clark has been able to do considering the scrutiny that she faces both on and off the court, has been nothing short of stellar.
What will be interesting to watch is how Clark’s individual offensive game continues to blossom. With what we’ve seen so far in terms of her ability to adapt her game to what teams are giving her, there is little doubt that the efficiency from distance won’t increase, as she shot 37.7% from long range for her college career, facing similar defensive attention—albeit with considerably less athletically gifted players on the aggregate. But it’s the intermediate areas between 8-24 feet, at least intermediate for Clark, whose shot profile extends all the way out to 30 feet (an astounding 61% of her attempts have come from 24+ feet), where Clark has the most room to improve in terms of filling out her game, as she has attempted just 29 shots from this range, making only nine. Considering the way teams are overplaying her, Clark’s ability to get into the midrange, particularly in her off-ball opportunities, with a shot-fake and one dribble into a look, should become an absolutely deadly weapon for her. Especially since Clark is already so good with her floater, a shot she has utilized less frequently than ideal—she’s shot just 17 floaters this season, making 41% of them.
Is Marina Mabrey the Last Piece to a Title Run for the Sun?
The Connecticut Sun being one of the league’s best teams is nothing new. The organization has finished lower than fourth in the overall standings just once (7th in 2020) over the last seven seasons, and currently sit in second this year at 18-6. To give you a further sense of how goo they’ve been: Since the start of that 2017 season, the Sun, with a combined record of 171-85—a 66.7% win percentage—have far and away the best win-loss mark in the league over that span. However, while Connecticut may have been as good as it gets in the league during that run, they have not been a particularly good perimeter shooting team, ranking better than sixth in the league in three-point makes per game just twice during that span: second in the league with 7.5 makes per game in 2019, and fourth with just 6.6 makes in 2017. Given their lack of perimeter shooting, it hasn’t been puzzling to figure out why the Sun have reached the penultimate championship step twice, only to play runner-up both times, losing in the Finals to the Mystics in ’19 and the Aces in ’22. The Sun have been great, but somewhat incomplete.
Yet, with the recent addition of Chicago Sky guard Marina Mabrey, one of the league’s best long-range shooters since entering the W in 2019, Connecticut may have finally added the last piece needed to complete their championship puzzle. The Sun come out of the break ranked 10th in the league in threes made per game at just 5.5 per contest, ahead of only the Atlanta Dream (5.3) and the Chicago Sky (4.5). But Mabrey, who has yet to play a game for Connecticut, brings her 2.3 makes per game—good for seventh in the league—to a Sun roster that is only lacking shooting in their rugged arsenal. Mabrey has ranked in the top 10 in threes made per game four of the last five seasons, while the Sun have not had a player rank in the top 14 since Shekinna Stricklen ranked fifth with 2.2 makes way back in 2019. The fact that Mabrey also gets an entire month of work with her team before making her first appearance in a Connecticut uniform will only add to the immediate impact the six-year veteran will have. Add to that a fiery side that is a perfect fit with a Sun team that is far and away the toughest group in the league, and Connecticut may finally have all the pieces to put a title run together.
A’ja Wilson Having a Bleating Great Season
A’ja Wilson is the type of player for which the English language requires new words and turns of phrases because we are nearing a point of depleting all existing superlatives to lather upon the Aces' unassailable superstar. The newly anointed Olympics MVP is currently in the midst of the most impressive season in WNBA history, and it’s not particularly close. The word GOAT gets thrown around a lot, but in Wilson’s case, it may not be enough. Here are Wilson’s numbers along with her rankings this season: (For more context on how incredible of a year she’s having historically, hit that subscribe button and read the newsletter to the end.)
27.2 ppg (1st), 12.0 rpg (1st), 2.9 bpg (1st), 1.9 spg (6th), 52.2% FG (15th), 39.5% 3PT, 87.2% FT (9th)
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