Basketball is not a sport, it's a way of life.
#29 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
Alright y’all, after a brief hiatus as I continue my Lonzo Ball cosplay, I’m back and ready to talk basketball. While the Brooklyn Nets were last in my rankings because I have no idea what path puts them back on the road to viability, with our 29th ranked team, the Washington Wizards, the path is there, it’s just a matter of the organization showing the patience to approach it with requisite caution. Last year's Wiz were a hot mess of bad shots and youthful errors. That’s okay, as a lean into a young rebuild is exactly what this organization has needed since Wall and Beal were wet behind the ear Wizards over a decade ago. Yet, this franchise has a history of bad process when it comes to slow progress. So, it’ll be a matter of keeping the focus on moving forward for an organization that doesn’t have much history of successful internal team-building to look back upon.
#29 Washington Wizards
Record: 15-67 (29th); 14th in the East; 109.07 Pace (1st); 118.9 Defensive Rating (28th); 110.2 Offensive Rating (25th); -8.7 Net Rating (27th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $213,966,401 (7th)
Cap Space: $-72,966,401 (24th)
Current Roster: Deni Avdija, Marvin Bagley III, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Justin Champagnie, Bilal Coulibaly, Johnny Davis, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma, Eugene Omoruyi, Jordan Poole, Landry Shamet
Key Free Agents: Tyus Jones (Unrestricted)
Single Word Description: Unshaped
Biggest positive: Deni Avdija. This season, the Wizards' fourth-year forward may have made the biggest leap in terms of where he seemed headed as a player—a very solid defender who left a lot to be desired from an offensive standpoint—to where he landed—a potential defensive star with an ever-expanding offensive game. Avdija’s improvement this season was conspicuous enough to earn him a fifth-place finish in the Most Improved Player voting, trailing only Tyrese Maxey (winner), Alperen Şengün, Jalen Williams, and Jalen Brunson. While not necessarily as statistically impressive, the jump Avdija made was far more surprising than the other four players, each of whom had already flashed star potential. In Avdija’s case, not much in his prior three seasons reflected a player ready to make the kind of jump that he did, particularly where offensive efficiency was concerned. Take a look at Avdija’s numbers this season versus his averages through his first three years in the league:
PPG: 14.7 (8.1)
FG%: 50.6% (43.1%)
3PT%: 37.4% (31.0)
REB: 7.2 (5.5)
AST: 3.8 (2.1)
Further encouraging in terms of Avdija’s growth is the way he improved as the year went along. Considering this Wizards team was a rough watch for much of the season, it’s an important sign that he stayed locked in. Over the course of the Wizards' last 41 games, Avdija's numbers jumped to 17.4 points and 8.5 rebounds while shooting 51/40/72. Avdija plays a brand of competitive and physical basketball that never wanes and contributed greatly to a team that from an energy and focus standpoint, looked far better towards the end of the season than the beginning. Now, the most interesting element of Avdija is a matter of how much further he takes this growth. With his combination of defensive prowess and scoring ability, the Wizards forward has the potential to become one of the league’s top two-way players. Were he in a better situation from a winning standpoint, I think Avdija would have a chance to push for All-Star consideration within the next few seasons. As it stands, he may already be one of the best value players in the league, as next year he begins a four-year, $55 million contract that actually descends as it ages.
Biggest Negative: Jordan Poole. Few players in the last decade have been a more frustrating combination of exceptional skill and questionable will than Poole, who, though only still not quite 25, has begun to feel like he may never mature to the point necessary to reach his potential. (Remember that maturity questions have plagued him at every level of play.) I know that he has been a punching bag here at LBB, and in the media at large, but his lack of awareness for the moment in terms of his decision-making, in addition to the preponderance of immature histrionics, really makes it tough to stand behind him. At $30 million a year for three more seasons, the Wizards have to hope for more than just 17.4 points on woeful 41/33/88 shooting splits. Poole did play better down the stretch, averaging 20.6 points on a more reasonable 44/36/94 in the last 20 games he appeared in, but the reality is that his success, while always predicated on hot streaks, has to be grounded in a more mature brand of basketball. Especially for a Wizards team that will skew even younger following what will likely be a top-3 pick in this year’s draft.
What’s Next: First, Washington has to settle on a head coach. It would be folly not to give interim coach Brian Keefe a full season’s worth of a look, as he had Washington playing significantly better after stomping out the burning bag of excrement left on his porch when Wes Unseld was let go in late January. Yes, Washington lost 16 straight under Keefe, but the fact that they finished 6-14 while significantly improving their margin of victory, and just looked like a more engaged group, was a testament to Keefe not losing a team who earlier in the season looked about as focused as Michael Beasley’s eyes during the rookie symposium. In terms of roster structure, the Wizards would heavily benefit from centering their focus, well, on a center, as Marvin Bagley III isn’t the answer to anything except for what player haunts Vlade Divac’s dreams. If the world shines on the Wiz, perhaps they end up with the first pick in the draft, where Alexander Sarr’s combination of size and mobility would be a great addition defensively with Avdija and impressive rookie Bilal Coulibaly. That trio could be the framework for an exciting young group of Wizards players. Yet, in the immediate, the biggest concern for Washington has to be what they can get out of Jordan Poole next season. Separate of the disappointing numbers last year, with the Wiz’s need to focus on youthful development, Poole’s poor decision-making has a negative effect on the growth curve of the other young players. Meaning, Poole has to find a way to better tow the line between supreme confidence and requisite conscience in terms of his decisions if he hopes to have a place in the Wizards long-term plans. (There is no mention of Kyle Kuzma here because he doesn’t particularly figure into the long-term future of this team. He’s 28, meaning he’s too old for their timeline, and he has value on the trade market—though he has expressed a desire to remain a Wizard. Even if he stays, I don’t think there’s much in terms of him imprinting an identity on this group going forward. No knock on Kuz, he's just a solid player who is getting more buckets than his game deserves.)
What They Shouldn’t Do: Deviate from the plan of rebuilding over a long process. There is nothing in this current group that could be contorted into anything more than a bottom-4 Eastern Conference team for at least the next season, and very likely the following. That’s okay, with Avdija, Coulibaly, maybe Poole, and to a lesser extent Corey Kispert, the team has a solid young core that should be greatly amplified by a top-3 selection in this year’s lottery.
Is There Hope?: This question hinges upon how the organization views itself going forward. If they see a franchise needing to focus on a couple exciting young players while working towards building a semblance of continuity and culture, then I think there are some very interesting building blocks going forward. If they see themselves as a team in need of adding pieces or willing to take on other teams' tertiary stars at a markup, then this continues to be the mess that it's been since their last winning season in 2018. Everything they have done as of late would seem to indicate a belief in the former.
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