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8 overreactions and 1 underreaction from what I saw during preseason...

The NBA has become a 365-day-a-year product, but this coming Tuesday, the moment many of us have been waiting for since June 18th finally arrives—that’s right, the NBA regular season is back! While we sadists never really untethered ourselves from the NBA feed, subsisting on a slow drip of Summer League, free agency, and preseason, for those of you with a more sane manner of consumption, I have compiled a short list of items that have caught my interest during preseason. These are, of course, overreactions, because we all know preseason is about as meaningful as that rebound relationship you just got out of. But much like your future “Mr./Ms. What-was-their-name-again?” helped you get back on your feet, preseason acts as a great primer to get back into NBA action. Here are 8 things I will overreact to, and 1 item I absolutely will not:

8 Things I Will Overreact To:

The Oklahoma City Thunder Are the Best Team in the Western Conference

There are not enough superlatives I can lather upon this Thunder team. OKC’s preseason has been a bit of a mixed bag, as they lost Isaiah Hartenstein for four-to-six weeks to a hand fracture, and Jalen Williams suffered a minor ankle sprain Thursday, which isn’t a particularly significant injury, but he has had a habit of nagging ankle issues. Even with a bit of bad luck early, I have loved everything I have seen from this OKC group in preseason. The Thunder have looked hungry and aggressive, especially on defense, where they absolutely swarm teams on the perimeter with Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, before funneling offenses into the shot-blocking presence of Chet Holmgren. Offensively, the Thunder have continued their trend of efficient scoring that attacks defenses from a multitude of approach vectors. Watching Coach Mark Daigneault utilize Hartenstein out of the high post was a particular joy—not just because Hartenstein is one of the best passing bigs in the league, but because a 4-5 handoff with Chet Holmgren is just a freakishly beautiful thing to behold. This Thunder team seems to have few exploitable weaknesses, and the fact that they are locked-in from the gate is such a joy to see from a team that would have every right to be brash and wild, but instead is aggressively focused. I think OKC takes the Western Conference by a couple of games and scratches at 60 wins this season.

Zach Edey Is Winning Rookie of the Year

(In fairness, this overreaction has been slowly building over the course of several months, ever since I watched Edey strafe a Keyonte George drive and obliterate his shot at the rim.)

Sometimes, over-analysis leads us to forget the simple beauty of Occam’s razor, as we contrive all these reasons for why a player will fail rather than rely on the simple parsimony of their greatness as evidence for why they may succeed. Such was the case with Edey—and guilty as charged—as I thought his plodding game of yesteryear would struggle to find purchase in today’s open-spacing and fast-paced brand of NBA basketball. But qualifying Edey as some immobile oaf does a great disservice to both his skill and the time he has put into his mobility and footwork. Edey, at 7’4”, 305 lbs., actually runs the floor well, with soft hands that make him a great target as he charges down the lane on fast breaks. That ability to get out in the open court, of course, is not the bread and butter of his game, as we can expect a very heavy dose of post-ups and pick-and-rolls, but there is no reason to think he’ll just be run off the floor in today’s game as many have continued to believe. That includes on the defensive end, where Edey has shown himself to be perfectly capable in the pick-and-roll, both in showing and moving his feet to stay in front of ball handlers or in retreating quickly to present himself as a rim protector.

Edey only played 20.2 minutes per contest this preseason, and I would presume he won’t get much higher than that, as it seems unlikely that he’ll eclipse 25 minutes per contest this year. Still, Edey was his stereotypically productive self in that time, averaging 12.2 points, 7.2 boards, and a block. With Edey being an immediately productive player, in a situation where I expect him to have the largest impact on winning for a team that should be in playoff contention—Reed Sheppard is a reasonable second in that conversation, but he won’t be a starter for Houston if health holds—I fully expect the big man to be a double-double machine as a rookie and bring home the league’s Rookie of the Year award.

Ryan Dunn is a Dude

Most of you are aware of Dunn by now, for those that aren’t, the Suns rookie forward came out of Virginia known as a defensive stalwart whose shooting, or lack thereof, was a major concern—think Anthony Roberson in the modern NBA. With Dunn having shot just 23.5% from distance in his two years at UVA, those concerns were well-founded. Yet, Dunn has been letting it fly this preseason to surprisingly good results. After never having attempted more than four threes in a single contest in his 65 games at UVA, Dunn has attempted five or more threes in four of his five preseason games, punctuated by a 6-for-11 performance against Denver last Sunday, where Dunn looked confident and comfortable as a shooter. For the preseason, Dunn is shooting an encouraging 43.3% from distance on a healthy 2.3 makes per game. If that shooting holds even within a reasonable measure of attrition, Dunn, who is also averaging 1.2 steals and 1.4 blocks, will immediately have an impact on a Suns team that can use his defensive prowess. Were Dunn to maintain himself as a reasonable scoring threat, don’t be surprised if he works his way into some closing units as well, as he is just too good and versatile of a defender to keep off the floor in situations where the Suns may need a stop. In what still presents as a relatively shallow rookie class, I fully expect Dunn to find himself on an All-Rookie first or second team this season.

The Bucks Stop Here

Preseason records are typically about as impactful in swaying my opinion as the 12 million goddamn campaign mailers I’ve been getting lately (Go Vote!), but in the Bucks' case, considering how stinky the vibes have been over the last six months, and armed with the hope that their new additions could provide some deodorant, a 1-3 record feels a more disconcerting funk than typical. This feels even truer because the Bucks' offense has looked bad this preseason, with Milwaukee finishing dead last in points per game at 96—the Bucks were the only team to average less than 100 points in preseason—while shooting just 40.2% from the field as a team. Worse still, the Bucks' new additions, Delon Wright (3.7 ppg, 37.5%), Taurean Prince (3.8 ppg, 37.5%), and Gary Trent Jr. (7.5 ppg, 41.9%) have all been underwhelming thus far. While Dame and Giannis have both looked pretty good in preseason, and Bobby Portis continues to be the most intense bench bucket in the league, this Bucks team looks like they are in real trouble if they can’t figure out how to get more production from their complementary pieces. The Bucks didn’t struggle to score last season, as they finished fourth in the league in points per game at 119.0, but with both Giannis and Dame succumbing to injuries by the end of the playoffs, Milwaukee has to find a way to lighten the burden on each as this season progresses. That’s a tough ask though if Milwaukee can’t generate enough offense to withstand the minutes without one of them on the floor. Last season, per Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks were minus-6.1 points with any units without Dame, minus-5.6 without Giannis, and minus-15.4 without either player on the floor. Dame just played his most games since ’19, so it’s fair to assume that he’ll likely be closer to the 55 games he has averaged the prior four seasons than the 73 we saw last year. With Kris Middleton continuing to unfortunately dissolve physically, it seems like the Bucks may be in some very serious trouble offensively this year. Yes, it’s early, and those new additions may just need time to coalesce and find their roles, but there is also a reason they were available on the market. I get the sense Milwaukee may be in for rough run.