Dieser Kerl ist wirklich gut (This guy is really good)
An in-depth look at Franz Wagner's superstar turn
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Typically, when you hear the phrase “addition by subtraction,” it’s in reference to the jettisoning of a problematic player. The concept is that, for the sake of team harmony—either on or off the court (though the two are rarely mutually exclusive)—the subtraction of a negative player adds value to the sum of the team’s parts. (I’m sure I probably didn’t need to explain, but, you know, setup.)
Rare, however, is the situation where losing a player who is a positive can somehow be seen as an additive element. Now, forgive me, as I got a degree in Sociology largely to actively avoid math, but what the Magic are doing by turning a negative situation into a wholly positive outcome must defy some mathematical rule—or, at the very least, the ones we typically ascribe to sports.
We touched on this a couple of weeks ago when discussing Jahmal Mosley’s candidacy for Coach of the Year, but what the Magic are doing since Paolo Banchero suffered an oblique injury has been nothing short of awesome.
It should be noted that, since that piece, Mosley has moved from tenth to third in Vegas odds for the award. Who would have thought a newsletter with 300 subscribers could move Vegas lines? Then again, perhaps it’s Orlando’s current seven-game win streak or the fact that they’ve won 13 of their last 14. Who can say with these things? We’ll call it a tie. But following a choppy 0-4 start in the immediate wake of Banchero’s injury, the Magic are now sailing clear of nearly all troublesome waters, going 13-1 over their last 14 games. Those 13 games are an Oreo cookie of six-or-more-game win streaks bisected by a single loss to the also surprisingly feisty despite missing their best player Los Angeles Clippers.
The first six wins were all while holding opponents to below 100 points, the longest such streak since the Spurs held seven consecutive teams under the century mark in 2018. While that first run helped Orlando regain much of their defensive identity, this second run is exposing Franz Wagner’s superstar one.
While Christmas is always a bit longer in Germany, apparently the Magic front office got their gift from Franz before they even started carving the turkey. Since the beginning of November, when Paolo first went out, Wagner has been one of the NBA’s best overall players, hitting on all cylinders by averaging 25.1 points, 6.6 assists, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.9 steals on 45.5% from the field and a return to a reasonable 32.4% from distance.
During that span, Wagner is one of just four players in the NBA to have played a minimum of 10 games while averaging at least 25 points, six assists, and six rebounds, joining Giannis, Jokić, and Luka.
Of course, much of Franz’s improved offensive play can be attributed to the return of a three-point stroke that completely abandoned him last season. After shooting just 28.1% on 4.6 attempts in 2024, Wagner is back to presenting as a threat from distance, making a career-high 2.1 per game at a 33.8% clip—which was at 35.4% before a rough 0-6 performance Sunday. This reclaimed ability to keep defenses honest means more driving lanes for Wagner when players close out on him from the perimeter, and getting a head of steam towards the basket is where Franz thrives best.
At 6’10” and 230 pounds of very ambulatory solid muscle, Franz is a force when he gets downhill. His 15.2 drives per game since the beginning of November are third in the league for forwards (min. 10 games), and while his field goal percentage on those drives is just 40.8%, he is generating 9.1 points per game, good for ninth in the entire league—positional caveats be damned.
Franz is such a special driver in large part because of his passing ability. His height allows him to make plays over the top of the defense, and he excels at waiting to draw the attention of the second defender before dishing the ball off.
The Magic offense has always been predicated on Franz and Paolo getting downhill and spraying out to shooters, but with Paolo out of the equation, Franz has become the sole force on these actions. With his height, strength, and vision, that suits Franz perfectly, as he has been attacking the rim with aplomb.
Here’s a look at his Franz’s chart before and after Paolo’s injury
As you can see above, it also helps significantly that Franz is the most three-level version of himself offensively that we’ve seen. While not exactly the stuff of legends, he has increased his catch-and-shoot percentage by more than five percent over last season’s nadir—from 29.0% to 34.2%. More importantly for the balance of his offensive game, his 28.6% of total shots coming as pull-ups reflect a player with the ball in his hands much more this season, finding ways to function in the intermediate space before the defense collapses on his drives. Wagner’s 5.1 points per game on pull-ups is a career-best and ranks seventh in the league among forwards, behind a veritable who’s-who of off-the-dribble assassins.
For his very substantial part, Wagner is posting career-highs this season in several stats, and in most instances, they’re significant jumps.
Normally, when a player adds this type of workload, efficiency plummets before an eventual rebound to the mean. In Franz’s case, his efficiency numbers have dipped some, but not by the type of percentages we typically see when a player scales their usage to this level.
The most encouraging part of all this, though, is that as more has been demanded of Franz, rather than playing outside of himself in an effort to be the hero, he has just remained the same multifaceted star—but on steroids.
While he has definitely taken on much more of the offensive workload without Paolo—his 31.5% usage in this stretch is seventh in the league while averaging by far the most field goal attempts of any 17-game stretch of his career—Franz is still playing the same brand of unselfish basketball that has made him such a dynamic offensive player. Since Nov. 1st, Wagner has a 32.9 assist percentage, trailing only LeBron (46.9%), Ben Simmons (40.3%), Giannis (38.4%), and Luka (36.4%) among forwards, though his 7.6 turnover ratio is far and away the lowest of that group. Those numbers tell you Franz isn’t forcing himself into a role that compromises who he is—he’s simply juicing his powers.
For the Magic, that has to be the most encouraging part of all this. While Orlando clearly had few reservations about Franz’s potential—signing the fourth-year player to a five-year extension worth up to $269 million this summer—that decision left many, myself included, thinking it was too much money to commit so early. Yet, the Magic front office had faith that Franz was a star-level talent. Still, if you were to slip Anthony Parker some sodium pentothal, even he might admit they likely didn’t expect All-NBA-level production from Franz.
This is to say nothing of the fact that, since entering the league, Wagner has been one of the most impactful two-way players in the NBA. His 1.8 steals per game rank fifth in the league, and there may not be a 6’10” player in the NBA better at swallowing opponents up on drives. Wagner’s strength, length, and mobility make him a versatile defender and an absolute nightmare to beat off the dribble.
Franz is one of the best in the NBA at standing players up and then getting his quick hands into the opponent’s dribble.
The return of Paolo sometime around New Year’s means Franz will have to take a bit of a step back. However, it should be noted that before dealing with illness in their last two games together, Wagner was averaging 25.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on 52.9% from the field and 45.5% from three to begin the season with both stars on the floor. This suggests Wagner’s production may not scale back as much as might be expected.
The fact remains that this opportunity to gain so much additional confidence while essentially playing the same style of basketball that will still be expected of him upon Paolo’s return has to have the Magic organization absolutely giddy. Though we love to lean on the Batman and Robin analogy for dynamic duos, in the case of Franz and Paolo, that disproportionate power dynamic no longer applies. This is a 1A-1B situation moving forward, and if you’re Orlando, that has to make you feel like you may have the best under-25 one-two punch in the NBA.
Note: Franz was just named number 4 and Paolo number 3 on ESPN’s “Top 25 Under 25” on Monday