Draft Day Spectacular!

First Round Draft Analysis

It’s the second annual Live. Breathe. Ball. Draft Day Spectacular! (Though, I’m pretty positive the first was definitely not named that.) Any people here that are new to my work, thanks for subscribing, and here is proof that this is still, in fact, a newsletter—and I do still write. Although, the cough I’ve incurred from all the rust being knocked off has caused some respiratory concerns.

For those that didn’t read my draft coverage last season, I will cover most of the players from the first round—hey, that’s a step up from just the lottery last season—and I will try to do so in a series of thoughts and notes in which I tell you the idealized version of the player, why I’m concerned he may not get there, along with a quick bite on what I think of the fit now that we know which team will be employing them for the next few years.

I do not claim to be a draft expert, and the players omitted here will be a reflection of me not feeling comfortable having accumulated enough information to form an opinion—isn’t that refreshing?

But enough patting myself on the back.

My information is gathered from several hours of video watching, metabolizing a ton of draft information over the course of the year, and from conversations I’ve had with various scouts and player evaluators over the course of the season

If you think I’m way off on a player, you may be right. But I would love to hear why you think so in the comments.

And since it’s been so damn long, this labor of love will be a completely free post in hopes of familiarizing myself with all the new subscribers I’ve accrued over the last few months—thank you for being here!

1. Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg, F, Duke

The Best Version: Flagg has a chance to be a transformational player. The tangibles are well-documented in terms of size and explosive athleticism, but it’s the mentality, the work ethic, and the dynamic improvement that comes along with them—look no further than his jumpshot, where the mechanics look vastly improved in his short time at Duke—that has everyone fawning over him. Like Anthony Davis, Flagg is a player who comes into his professional career profiling as a potential all-world defender, whose motor, instincts, and range make him ideal as a modern defensive star. From an offensive standpoint, Flagg’s improved shooting is incredibly encouraging, but it’s the playmaking—particularly his ability to find passing windows over the top—that I loved more than anything else. The depth of dimensions to Cooper’s game, as a player who should just be celebrating high school graduation, is a bevy of riches you just rarely see.

What Concerns Me: Not much. The mechanics on the jumper can get a bit rigid, and the shot can get flat at times. The handle can be a bit high on drives, leaving him open to players reaching in from the perimeter.

The Fit: Flagg is considered such a special prospect that the idea of fit really doesn’t enter into the pick. That being said, Dallas has made it well-known that defense is their focus, and in Flagg they get a player that projects as All-World on that side of the ball. You also can’t help but be excited about the prospect of a backline defense that will feature Davis and Flagg essentially shutting off entire swaths of the floor. More importantly, the role diversity Flagg had at Duke shows a player that will be comfortable tasked with several different roles.

2. San Antonio Spurs: Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers

The Best Version: Harper’s ability to work to his spots is special. He has a phenomenal handle in tight spaces, a wide array of counter moves, and balletic footwork. He also is great at getting guys on his hips and keeping them there. I just love the sense of control he plays with in the halfcourt. The jumper on catch-and-shoot looks is solid, and I think he will be a plus shooter with NBA development. The competitive energy stood out to me, as Harper fights defensively and likes being the guy in the big moment. He’s not an explosive athlete, but he will benefit from the added space to operate at the NBA level. The vision was good, and he makes all the plays on the move that you would hope to see from a player who will have the ball as often as he will.

What Concerns Me: The shooting off the dribble will have to improve to keep NBA defenses honest—Harper shot just 28% on pull-up jumpers last season. The handle can get a bit wild and loose, particularly when he’s trying to set up a drive. A competitive defender, but not an especially impactful one, particularly off-ball, where you would hope his ability to read the floor would lead to more plays in the passing lanes.

The Fit: It isn’t seamless because of De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle both being prominent fixtures in the Spurs' backcourt, but Harper’s ability to function both on and off the ball should allow San Antonio to play around a bit with lineups and his role. I was trying to avoid the Brunson comparison, but I think Harper’s initial impact will be similar to when Brunson played alongside Luka and did a lot of his work off the pass.

3. Philadelphia 76ers: VJ Edgecombe, G, Baylor

The Best Version: Edgecombe enters this draft as the most explosive athlete on the board—a player who can soar through the air and fly on the break. Edgecombe has a phenomenal motor and should get 8 points per game just by weaponizing his effort and athleticism in the open court and as an off-ball cutter. The three-point shot looks good from a catch-and-shoot standpoint, and he got more comfortable taking and making threes as the season progressed, as evidenced by his 39.1% on 4.8 attempts per game in conference play (versus 34.1% on 4.6 attempts for the entire season).

Defensively, Edgecombe has perhaps the best upside of the perimeter defenders in this draft. His ability to jump passing lanes, rim protect as a help-side player, and his desire to get into a stance and stay in front as a point-of-attack defender are all skills that perfectly translate to being a potential All-Defensive level defender as he matures at the next level—especially once he adds more strength to his frame.

The combination of defensive instincts and open-floor dynamism is going to make the rookie a League Pass must-watch, as he’ll provide some highlight-reel transition plays.

What Concerns Me: The three-point shot from a stationary position looks pretty good, but there is a rigidity to Edgecombe’s lower body that worries me as a movement shooter at the next level. His ability to get to the rim, especially as a straight-line driver, is special, but the inability to finish through contact did not match up with the rest of the athletic profile. Edgecombe often seems as though he’s not sure how to adjust his shot angle and body positioning as he’s challenged, in part because he sometimes takes off from an absurd launch angle or distance. You can get away with that in college—not in the NBA. The handle is going to have to get much tighter, and I’m not sure if he’s ever going to have a ton of pop as an off-the-dribble scorer in isolation.

The Fit: I get Philly taking Edgecombe based on him being the best player on the board, and his ability to defend should allow him to immediately come in and make an impact. But I don’t love him being stuck in an offense that won’t play with much pace and a defense that lacks an aggressive mentality. I fear those factors may mitigate Edgecombe’s best weapons entering the league in terms of his electric athleticism and his ability to fly in the open court.

4. Charlotte Hornets: Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke

The Best Version: Knueppel is the best pure shooter in this draft, full stop. Given an open look, the outcome is an afterthought. That skill typically translates well, but what got teams so excited over the course of the college season is the way Knueppel operated as a secondary playmaker. Knueppel is great at coming off a screen, receiving the ball, and getting into actions where he often makes the right read and is adept at making quick decisions off the dribble. That ability will keep defenses honest for a player who overcomes marginal athleticism by varying his attack with pace, physicality, and great balance. Knueppel is also just a “hooper” in all the best ways possible. His ability to fill a need, founded on his recognition as a superior basketball intellect—no, I’m not saying this because he’s a white guard from Duke—leads you to believe that he will manufacture ways to be an impactful player.

What Concerns Me: Knueppel is one of the worst athletes in terms of explosiveness in this draft. He has great footwork, but slow feet, and both laterally and vertically he is going to have to use craft and guile to overcome his deficiencies. This is concerning on both ends of the floor. Knueppel is going to struggle at—or be completely incapable of—getting separation as an on-ball performer, as well as facing some real challenges finishing at the rim. While Knueppel held up better defensively this season than expected, his physicality as a defender will likely not present as the advantage it did against college size and athleticism. Knueppel will also have to really improve his off-the-dribble shooting, as teams are going to sprint him off the line, and with the forecasted issues finishing over NBA athleticism, his ability to knock down off-the-dribble jump shots may be the fulcrum point on which the success of his career rests.

The Fit: The Hornets needed shooting and poise, and Knueppel immediately offers both. I don’t think he comes in and lights up the league, especially as he won’t be better than the third or fourth option on the floor most of the time, but that’s just fine with how Kon plays. I imagine he’ll love getting spray outs from LaMelo and Brandon Miller and should get a lot of clean looks. Also, if you’re the Hornets organization, it doesn’t hurt that Knueppel will help put some butts in the seats as a local college product.

5. Utah Jazz: Ace Bailey, F, Rutgers

The Best Version: Bailey has the type of tough shot-making from just about any spot on the floor that only elite scorers can flash with regularity. There are times where his body balance or the release angle of the shot seem to be defying physics with their results. He loves working off the dribble to get into his own stuff but seems fully comfortable in a catch-and-shoot role. When it’s all flowing, this is a buckets-in-bunches player who will have smoke for every defender on the opposition’s roster. From a defensive standpoint, there are a lot of tools between his length and athleticism that he would occasionally flash, especially as a rim protector or in jumping the passing lane. And at 6’7", with a solid base and very good athleticism, his defense is the area of his growth that could become a real differentiator in just how good he can be.

What Concerns Me: Decision-making on multiple levels. You don’t always love the shot selection. There’s a myopia that takes hold when he’s getting his, so don’t expect the ball if he’s made up his mind to score. Bailey often loses focus defensively and seems less than excited to have to participate on that end. If his shot isn’t falling, you don’t feel him for stretches—that shouldn’t happen with a player this damn talented.

The Fit: This pick feels like a Danny Ainge special. From a pure talent standpoint, Bailey may be as gifted as any player in this draft. And if you’re the Jazz and you think he can be that special, he fills a need on the wing and provides the potential young franchise pillar that they have been tanking for. Now, with all the negative buildup to the draft—with Bailey’s team trying to position him toward certain organizations—there are some questions about how the young man will respond to being in a place that wasn’t one of his preferred destinations. And that circumstance is going to be immediately grafted onto any conversations about maturity that he will undoubtedly face as he develops in the league. While I don’t think that’s particularly fair, I hope he’s ready for all the added scrutiny.

6. Washington Wizards: Tre Johnson, SG, Texas

The Best Version: Johnson is an electric scorer who is as unbothered with a hand in his face as you’ll find in a one-and-done prospect. His comfort shooting on the move and off the dribble should allow him to be the type of multifaceted, multi-level scorer that feasts on the added space that playing at the next level provides. Johnson is unconscionable in the manner that elite scorers must be. While the overall shooting percentage needs to improve (42.7%), the 39.7% from distance on 6.8 attempts, considering the amount of defensive attention he drew, is cause for real excitement. While the Cam Thomas comparison has in many ways been weaponized against Johnson, I think—much like Thomas—Johnson’s comfort with the ball in his hands and his ability to manipulate the defender with his change of pace should translate into a player capable of becoming a reasonable playmaker for others at the next level.

What Concerns Me: Shot selection—and with it, shooting efficiency—are going to be the biggest concerns with Johnson, who is the best tough shot-maker in this class but seems to seek out more difficult attempts than is necessary at times. This is a player where the “make or miss” axiom will hold very true, especially if Johnson doesn’t become a better finisher at the next level, as he converted just 46.5% of his attempts at the rim last season. Johnson also plays with the type of edge that rests upon a razor’s edge between fiery and too hot to handle. When the inferno rages too brightly, Johnson can be contentious with friend and foe alike.

The Fit: It feels obvious that Washington is clearing the path to play an offensively aggressive brand of basketball, as Johnson joins some very unshy shooters in fellow Wizards youngsters: Kyshawn George, Bub Carrington, Will Riley, and Alex Sarr. With low expectations and a healthy environment for hucking, Johnson is going to have some games where he hangs some big numbers. As long as he doesn’t lean into his bad habits in this environment, I like the freedom he'll get to round out his game and find his spots at the next level. But that too, likely rest on a thin line.

7. New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma

The Best Version: Fears has the type of game that harkens back to And-1 mixtapes. The former Sooner plays with the ball on a string and relishes an opportunity to exploit a player unfortunate enough to have to defend him in space. There will be plenty of “oohs” and “aahs” as Fears flashes the type of ball control that has made Kyrie and LaMelo fan favorites. Fears’ ability to attack the rim, particularly as a pick-and-roll performer, is what every NBA team looks for from a lead guard. He splits defenses and turns corners in a way that makes the hairs on the back of your neck stand.

What Concerns Me: Fears is a small guard who can’t shoot—28.4% from distance last season—and who finished poorly at the rim, shooting just 44.5% in the half court. That’s an exploitable combination at the next level, where teams are going to play off of Fears and force him to prove he can make a shot. Fears also led the SEC in turnovers last season while ranking fifth in assists, with an assist-to-turnover rate of just 1.2. Were his game resplendent with dazzling dimes, perhaps I could feel better about the turnovers, but Fears makes linear reads as a passer. Add to that a shaky defensive profile in terms of effort and mental commitment, and Fears has a lot of growth that will be required. Fortunately, he also reclassified and won’t even be 19 until October 14 of this year.

The Fit: Combining Fears and Missi as a blossoming pick-and-roll tandem is a tantalizing developmental project. That said, I don’t love the fact that the Pels are adding another non-shooter to a roster that already has too many of them. The Pels also have a glut at the guard spot for a team that had a lot of other needs they could have fulfilled.

8. Brooklyn Nets: Egor Demin, PG, BYU

The Best Version: 6’8" guards with this type of passing ability just don’t come around very often. Demin sees all the angles and has the length to reach pretty much all levels of passing windows. He’s a special operator once he gets downhill or into the open court. When he can elongate to the rim, he looks good, but he doesn’t have any strength and there’s not much in the finishing package.

What Concerns Me: Not an explosive athlete, and his handle doesn’t really offer another means for him to get by players without a screen. Tends to play too upright on both ends. The mechanics with the jumper aren’t bad up top, but the shot is flatter than Florida, and the results were not promising—27.3% from distance this past season. If teams are daring him to shoot, can he get into the teeth of the defense where he needs to be to be his most effective?

The Fit: This was the first pick that felt like a reach, but Brooklyn clearly has a desire to find their ballhandler of the future, and Demin’s unique blend of size and vision makes him a huge upside play. The Nets can afford to give the keys to the offense to him at times and just let him figure it out. I don’t think this will be a pretty process to start, but Demin being afforded the luxury of patience by a Nets team with no real ambitions is a great fit for player and team alike.

9. Toronto Raptors: Colin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina

The Best Version: The defensive instincts really pop with CMB. He is an elite team defender who shines in his ability to diagnose actions and position himself. While not an explosive athlete by any means, he moves very well and has a 7’0" wingspan that helps him get his hands on a lot of balls. Tasked with playing an undersized center position at South Carolina, Boyles’ strength and low center of gravity allowed him to stand up offensive players looking to back him down. He also showed comfort defending wings in space and recovers quickly on shows. There’s a lot of Paul Millsap potential as a player who can anchor the back side of a defense from the power forward position. The physicality in his game is impressive and necessary, considering his athletic limitations as an undersized big. The handle is a plus, and I like the passing.

What Concerns Me: The shooting from the perimeter may never come around—and if it does, it needs to quickly pick up the pace. The mechanics are slow, and the shot just doesn’t look very good from out there as currently constituted. The Zach Randolph comparisons are fair in terms of ground-bound, lightly round lefties, but can Z-Bo’s game hold up in the modern NBA?

The Fit: Masai Ujiri has a thing for long, unconventional players, like Tiger Woods does tall blondes. CMB’s intelligence, competitive edge, and defensive impact fold perfectly into Toronto, but the Raptors adding another player who is a weird fit stylistically and can’t shoot feels cliché at this point. With his physical presence, I think he’ll be a good addition for what Coach Rajaković is building culturally, but the spacing is going to be tighter than a standard seat on a Spirit Airlines flight.

10. Phoenix Sun (via Houston Rockets): Khaman Maluach, C, Duke

The Best Version: At 7’2", with a 7’5" wingspan, Maluach has all the size and length you could want at the center position. His greatest offensive strength is as a lob threat, where his ability to corral those substantial limbs into high-pointing the ball on the catch reminds me of what made Andrew Bynum special. Maluach also finished nearly everything at the rim, shooting a very impressive 88.9% on layups, dunks, and tips. He’s also shown good touch for his size and may eventually develop into a decent shooter. Defensively, Maluach is a very good deterrent—though not an elite shot-blocker—providing resistance with his size and smart positioning. As a defender in space, Maluach has real comfort switching out and standing up against smaller ball handlers, and his ability to give a hard show and retreat back into position as a defender in the pick-and-roll is about as good as you’re going to see from a player of his size.

What Concerns Me: Considering his length and size, you would really like to feel him more as a defensive rebounder. Some of this can be attributed to playing alongside Cooper, but some of it was a strength and positioning issue. Now, he is a good offensive rebounder, and that should remain a weapon, but the defensive rebounding has to improve. He also struggles with ball security, a problem that only gets amplified with the ballhawks at the next level. Maluach is relatively new to basketball, and there is a lack of intuition that is reflected in that. He thinks the game more than he feels it. I don’t think he’s at a James Wiseman level of concern there, but the NBA game requires processing that cannot afford to be mired by latency. Finally, as a rim protector, Maluach is going to have to show better judgment on his contests, as he falls for pump fakes far too often—cut to image of Jimmy Butler lustfully salivating.

The Fit: I love the upside of Maluach, but I fear that the Suns’ need to get production from their young players may mean they can’t slow-roll his development. This is a player that will benefit from reps, but he is still actively learning how to play the game and growing into his body. That being said, banging with Nick Richards in practice is going to be a great way to toughen Maluach up inside.

11. Memphis Grizzlies (via Portland Trail Blazers): Cedric Coward, F, Washington State

The Best Version: At 6’5", with an insane 7’2" wingspan, good balance, and impressive shot mechanics, Coward looks the part of a high-level 3-and-D wing. His ability to get squared to the basket with a solid base and high release should make him a catch-and-shoot threat out of the box. I also really liked his comfort getting into his step-back in the midrange or a one-dribble pull-up. The growth curve has been insane with Coward, considering that his journey began at Division III Willamette University just four years ago—displaying a commitment and work ethic that you love given the physical gifts. While not likely to be a major part of his game at the next level, Coward can mash in the post and should be able to abuse switches if he gets a mouse in the house. Defensively, his length, massive mitts, and good motor are the stuff of a solid defender at the next level. He’s competitive and in constant movement, and he’s a plus shot-blocker from the wing position.

What Concerns Me: Are we sure he can play as a full-time wing? He’s a good athlete in terms of fluidity and strength, but there’s not a lot of quick-twitchiness, and he is not an explosive leaper. The lack of on-ball creation is concerning, and his offensive game probably ends up looking a lot like a better-passing version of Aaron Nesmith (clearly I have the Pacers on the brain), where he’s always going to have to rely on teammates to get him good looks.

The Fit: Memphis has been in search of a high-scoring wing for several seasons now, and perhaps Coward can finally fill that void. The shooting will be buttressed by kickouts on Ja drives, but I would have liked his fit much more in the pass-heavy offense that Memphis eschewed at the end of this season.

12. Chicago Bulls: Noa Essengue, F, Ratiopharm Ulm

The Best Version: It’s easy to fall in love with Essengue’s length and ability to cover distance. This is the youngest player in the draft, and though his game often looks it, watching him defend on the perimeter, use his length to cut off driving lanes, get in the passing windows, and contest shots all makes him a tantalizing prospect. Offensively, ODB would love him, as the game is pretty raw, but there are a lot of different places where you could see growth coming in leaps if he works hard enough. He’s at his best in the open court, where he chews up the floor once he gets going and finishes extremely well, shooting an impressive 86% at the rim in transition. He’s also looked good as a straight-line driver off one or two dribbles. The shot mechanics are workable and actually remind me a lot of Obi Toppin’s—both good and bad—as the upper body release is fairly effortless, but the follow-through and lack of early work in the lower body lead to a lot of errant misses. You could see him becoming a credible three-point shooter once he is subjected to consistent work with NBA-level shooting instruction. That said, it’s concerning that he shot 27.6%, 25.4%, and 16.9% in his last three seasons.

What Concerns Me: Essengue is absolutely going to have to hit the weight room, and with his narrow shoulders and shallow chest, putting on weight may be a major issue. At just 204 pounds, the physicality of the NBA is going to be a problem—especially since he is not skilled enough to be a starting-level four and lacks the size and heft to play the five. Though Essengue would often look good defending in space, his actual technique isn’t great. He opens himself up much too quickly, opting to get into a cross-legged run in recovery. While he could get away with it against marginal athletes in the German League, NBA players are going to abuse him if he doesn’t significantly tighten this up. I’m also just not sure what his elite skill projects as. There are several different paths of interest for his development, but I don’t know which one makes me feel certain that it could be the direction toward making him special. For now, I see an intriguing physical talent, but not a player that I could reasonably slot into anything more than a Chris Boucher-level of impact as a pro.

The Fit: Essengue provides just the type of athlete that should fold perfectly into the Bulls' up-tempo offense. His ability to get out and run can immediately be a leaned-upon skill as he hopefully develops the shooting touch. The issue is that—from Patrick Williams, to Dalen Terry, to Julian Phillips—the Bulls are not short on players whose games have not come around in large part because of an inability to develop as shooters.

13. New Orleans Pelicans: Derik Queen, C, Maryland

The Best Version: Queen has very good mobility for a heavy big, as he plays up on the front pads of his feet in a way you rarely see from players his size. The easiest way to describe his movement is Fred Flintstone bowling. Queen’s nimble footwork is further accentuated by great body control. Add to that a good midrange jumpshot and floater, and great ingenuity as he adjusts his angle on drives, and Queen should be a difficult cover as an operator out of the high post. He is also a very good ballhandler for his size and has shown a good ability to read defenses and make the right play when he draws extra attention.

What Concerns Me: Queen has great footwork but is not an explosive athlete by any stretch. He plays below the rim, and you have to wonder: will he be able to gain the same advantages against stronger players who won’t cede positioning? I’m not convinced he’ll shoot to range at the next level, which is going to be tough for an undersized five. I hate the Jokic comparison—unless you want to talk about his saving grace defensively perhaps being quick hands. If he can utilize play recognition and hand positioning, maybe he can become passable—I’m not betting on it.

The Fit: Let’s ignore the fact that I’m not sure there’s any world where you can have a functional defense with Zion and Queen on the floor together. Offensively, the pairing can present some fun matchup challenges for the opponent, but the Pelicans are just not ever going to have enough long-range shooting on the floor for a modern offense if that’s the plan. The pairing of Queen with Missi can make some sense offensively, but I don’t buy Queen being capable of guarding fours. So, I have concerns about the two not being able to stay on the floor enough together to avoid cannibalizing development minutes from one another. I also have Fears and Queen as perhaps my two biggest bust potentials in the lottery, so swinging for the fences on both is a bold move.

14. San Antonio Spurs (via Atalanta Hawks): Carter Bryant, F, Arizona

The Best Version: At 6’7", 215 pounds, with a 7’0" wingspan, Bryant checks all the boxes for ideal wing size. Defensively, the length and anticipation are exciting elements of his package as a wing defender. He’s very good laterally—though not elite—but add that to great competitive energy and a desire to stay in the play, and Bryant should be a plus defender at the NBA level. Bryant is also active as a help-side rim protector and uses his size and springiness well in those situations. Offensively, he’s really just a catch-and-shoot player with some ability to spring himself open on back cuts. That ability to shoot of the catch will serve him well at the next level, but he’s really just a stationary shooter for now and won’t manipulate defenses much as a threat on the move.

What Concerns Me: Wings who lack a creative handle become very limited as offensive players at the NBA level. While Bryant flashed moments where he looked good in a one-dribble step-back, when isolated in space or trying to maneuver toward the basket, he looked uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. If the shot proves to be a major weapon, this won’t impede him from being an effective 3-and-D player, but it could significantly hamper any growth to a star-level talent. I also just don’t love that he didn’t really have any games as an offensive player where his impact was profound. His season high was just 14 points, and he only scored in double figures in 5 of the 37 games he played last season. Yes, he was a freshman—but where was that game that really put him in the crosshairs as something special?

The Fit: Some organizations just have a type. Bryant joins a long list of 3-and-D wings who have the potential to really blossom if they can fill out their skill tree. Not many organizations have a better track record with player development, and Bryant’s ability to come in and be an immediate contributor as a shooter and a wing defender is really all the Spurs may need from him. And that’s if there’s any real need for him at all. The Spurs have a lot of depth at their wing positions and may just allow Bryant to develop in Austin for the majority of this coming season.

15. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Miami Heat): Thomas Sorber, C, Georgetown

Set The Best Version: Sorber presents as a strong defensive player who, as a rim protector, uses his size and positioning to compensate for just okay vertical athleticism. Though not quite 6’10", Sorber’s 7’6" wingspan was second only to Maluach among this incoming rookie class. Sorber used that impressive length to average 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. From an offensive standpoint, Sorber should be a prominent fixture in the pick-and-roll game. Though not explosive, he finishes well as the roll man, and his passing instincts have a chance to blossom into a specialized weapon as a playmaker out of the short roll. The shot mechanics look pretty decent, particularly with his face-up jumper, but any hope as a true stretch big is going to require serious work on his long-range shooting, where he converted just 16.2% from distance last season. Though no longer en vogue in the league, Sorber is at his best in post-up opportunities, where his footwork shines. He insinuates his body well into space and has a lot of smart moves that flash an impressive economy of motion in terms of his footwork.

What Concerns Me: Any talk of trepidation concerning Sorber has to begin with the realities of a big man coming off foot surgery. While Sorber shouldn’t have any issues coming in healthy, it’s always disconcerting when bigs have foot issues before they are ever subjected to the rigors of a full NBA season. While the footwork is mostly a positive, Sorber can be a bit lumbering, and defending NBA athletes in space on shows and switches is going to be the real stress test for just how good of a defender he can become. The player model feels a bit dated—in terms of being an undersized center with no real stretchability.

The Fit: When Isaiah Hartenstein wasn’t on the floor, the Thunder still struggled with interior toughness and rebounding this season. Enter Sorber, who will come in and offer another big body that can rebound and protect the rim. I like the developmental ecosystem here, as Hartenstein is likely a cap casualty after this coming season, but in the meantime, Sorber can increase his passing IQ from playing against and alongside him.

16. Portland Trail Blazers (via Memphis Grizzlies): Hansen Yang, C, China

17. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Detroit Pistons): Joan Beringer, C, KK Cedevita Olimpija

The Best Version: Beringer is a fluid big man who runs well and gets off his feet quickly and effortlessly for his size. I like the way he tracks the ball visually, and he’s comfortable catching it in a wide window of space. Add to that a willingness to set a real screen, and it’s easy to see how much of a threat Beringer could present in the pick-and-roll. He played soccer until literally outgrowing the sport at 14, which likely explains why he is such a graceful big man in terms of balance at this young of an age. He likely won’t be able to switch out onto quicker guards, but I was impressed by his ability to show on perimeter players and move his feet to stay in front. There isn’t a lot to his offensive game besides rim runs and transition, but he can really locomote when he gets a head of steam. His frame already looks solid for his age, and his legs lead me to believe that he could fill out in ways that will add some needed physicality when he bangs as an offensive rebounder. He’s never going to be Bismack Biyombo, but I think he can add 15–20 pounds of muscle as he develops into manhood. The flexibility and hip swivel for a player a hair under 7 feet is really impressive and is the element of his growth potential that I’m going to be watching most closely.

What Concerns Me: There is a steep learning curve for a player this raw and with this few reps. He gets out over his skis defensively and is not a multifaceted processor by any stretch. Things are going to have to be simplified for him, and I expect a few “welcome to the league, rook” moments where he gets abused by savvy veterans who will take advantage of his exuberance. I’m old school, but I also prefer shot blockers who are more interested in controlling the ball than making a statement, and I think that extensive work on verticality over theatricality will go a long way in improving Beringer’s impact as a rim protector.

The Fit: With the type of player I think Beringer can become in the pick-and-roll, learning from Rudy Gobert should be of great benefit to his development. Just as importantly, the pairing allows Minnesota to negate some of the inevitable culture shock for a player this young coming to the States to play professionally. I also can’t imagine how elated Wolves players will be to have a big man who can actually handle a pass.

18. Utah Jazz (via Washington Wizards): Walter Clayton Jr., G, Florida

The Best Version: Next to Tre Johnson, Clayton Jr. may be the toughest shot maker in this class. Because of his size (6'2" without shoes) and just good(ish) athleticism—though he gets great lift on his shot to create space—the ability to knock down defended shots is going to be important for Clayton Jr., as he’s just not going to generate a ton of separation. Fortunately, Clayton Jr. was the gutsiest shooter in college basketball last season, answering the bell time and again when everyone in the arena knew who was taking the shot. That unflappable toughness drives a mental profile that makes you just believe in this kid competitively. As an on-ball operator, you love Clayton’s pace, while his ability to knock down shots off the dribble should make him a great weapon in the NBA game’s most frequently used actions. A constant movement threat, Clayton Jr. should excel at creating secondary offense off of pins and springing actions.

What Concerns Me: We just don’t have much of a track record of small scoring guards excelling at the NBA level—though if I’m Clayton Jr.'s handlers, we are subjecting him to Payton Pritchard videos like he’s Alex from A Clockwork Orange. If playing the point, Clayton Jr. is fine as a playmaker, but he doesn’t really have a particularly creative handle, and his passing reads are not in the upper echelons. The lack of height and elite athleticism, along with instincts that are more driven by scoring than playmaking, just means Clayton Jr. is really going to have to shoot the ball at a nearly elite level to stay on the floor. I like his competitiveness as a defensive player, but he’s not quick enough to stay in front of NBA point guards and he’s not big enough to defend twos.

The Fit: This is one of my least favorite fits. The Jazz have a million guards, many of them of the combo guard variety. You have to imagine that the Jazz are shopping Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, and there is some sense to trying to pair Clayton Jr. with Collier, a point guard who can’t shoot but may be able to slide over to defend twos. But this just feels like Clayton Jr. is going to get lost in the mix early on.

19. Nolan Traore (via Milwaukee Bucks): Nolan Traore, PG, Saint-Quentin

The Best Version: Traore has good length with a 6’8" wingspan and plays to it well with his ability to get into the teeth of the defense. He’s a good athlete, though not a jitterbug, but he uses good pace and a solid handle to get to his spots on the floor. Not the most inventive of the group, but maybe the best pure passer in this draft. Defensively, he uses his length well to nab steals.

What Concerns Me: The perimeter shot has to improve. Traore shot just 30.0% from distance over his last two seasons, and the shot just doesn’t feel confident from range. Really, the shooting in general is the biggest question here, as Traore shot just 41.3% from the floor overall and doesn’t seem to have a spot where he’s a plus from. He’s going to have to add strength to aid his finishing against contact.

The Fit: The Nets want all the ballhandlers, and Traore was a player who had a top-5 grade from some people as recently as 14 months ago. He is really the only true point guard in terms of size and skillset in the first round of this draft, so it makes sense for Brooklyn to select a more conventional option at the position after swinging for the fences with Demin.

20. Miami Heat: Kasparas Jakucionis, G, Illinois

The Best Version: With his combination of size, shooting touch, ballhandling, and playmaking, Jakucionis should be a high-caliber combo guard at the next level. At his apex, there is Goran Dragic potential here, and though I’m not trying to pigeonhole him into fellow Balkan comparisons, I think a Tomas Satoransky career arc is most likely. I believe more in his shooting numbers from the first half of the season and think that will see him prove to be an adept catch-and-shoot player. Combine that with a nice handle and a really smart ability to manipulate pace, and he is the perfect third guard at the next level. Jakucionis is one of the better passers in this class, with an intriguing and impressive penchant for utilizing that pacing in his attack to allow passing lanes to open. He anticipates defensive reactions well and will be a great primary or secondary engine.

What Concerns Me: It’s not the excessive consonants or geographical relativity that draws the comparisons to Dragic or Sato, but the fact that Jakucionis lacks elite athleticism in terms of kinetic movement. His drive game is predicated on changing speeds and utilizing footwork in tight spaces, as separation is hard to come by. His comfort with his stepback will be an important element for his ability to be a threat in the pick and roll, but if he’s shooting poorly on those looks, as he did in the second half of the season, he’s going to have a hard time scoring. Defensively, that same lack of quickness is going to present problems when he’s defending out on the perimeter or having to chase after elite movement players.

The Fit: I love this fit. Kasparas’ ability to toggle positions makes him a nice addition for a Heat team that likes guards who can play both on and off the ball. He’s big enough to guard twos, but can run your offense on the other end, making him a good option alongside Tyler Herro.

21. Washington Wizards (via Utah Jazz): Will Riley, SF, Illinios

22. Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks): Drake Powell, SF, North Carolina

23. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans Pelicans): Asa Newell, PF/C, Georgia

The Best Version: The league will always have a rotational spot for mobile bigs who compete and seem to have a knack for finding themselves consistently around the ball. Not an elite leaper, but quick off the ground in a way that helps him as an offensive rebounder and as a player who will flush a dunk down before the defense has time to react to what is happening. If the shot comes around, there is a versatile weapon buried in there as a power forward or small-ball five. If not, most of the production will come in the dunker’s spot, on the break, or hitting the glass. Defensively, he stays active and engaged and should have the ability to guard occasionally guard both forward positions and some centers.

What Concerns Me: Feels like a sum-of-his-parts player who doesn’t have one elite skill and is stuck between the four and the five spot. At 225, he’s slight and is going to struggle with physicality likely mitigating some of his rebounding impact. Can’t really put the ball on the deck and isn’t a particularly good passer, which makes him a pretty singular option out of the pick and roll. More backup big than impact starter.

The Fit: No team gets more excited about a big that gets blinders on solely rim-running than the Hawks. I think Newell’s mobility at his size is going to be a nice complement to Onyeka Okongwu’s stretchability as an undersized five.

24. Sacramento Kings (via Oklahoma City Thunder): Nique Clifford, SF, Colorado State

25. Orlando Magic (via Denver Nuggets): Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State

The Best Version: Because he’s not gifted with his father’s raw athleticism, Richardson has adapted a great understanding of pace and has excellent body control. He really is adept at using his pacing, balance, and maneuverability to work in tight spaces close to the rim. He also flashes a soft touch on floaters. When he gets into the teeth of the defense, he uses his long arms to create passing lanes over the top and with a variety of wraparounds. I’m not as high on the three-point shooting as many, as I don’t like the lower body balance—he has very widely set feet on the catch—but the results at 41.2% are undeniable. There’s a maturity to his craft and guile offensively that was advanced for a freshman.

What Concerns Me: The first step is much more long than it is quick, and that’s because Richardson is not gifted with great burst. Really, he’s just an okay athlete in totality for his position. He compensates with his pacing, but separation is going to be hard to come by, and blow-bys are likely non-existent against NBA-caliber athletes. On hand-offs or curl plays, defenders were completely comfortable closing any space, as Richardson just doesn’t explode around the corner on guys. I also really didn’t like the geometry of his game in terms of him taking weird, looping angles around screens as a ballhandler. A player of his limitations needs to have better economy of motion in cutting the angles tight and limiting a defender’s space to recover. The biggest issue is that he’s an undersized scoring guard. I’m not sure I see a world where he can be your primary ballhandler given his limitations. He’s at his best when he’s on the move and can manipulate a defense responding to him getting downhill, but you just don’t see teams running a lot of off-ball actions to spring 6’1” guards into secondary offense.

The Fit: While not the same player, Orlando just had some success with an undersized scoring guard off their bench in Cole Anthony. Richardson should slide into some of those minutes, and the Magic are banking on him helping increase the long-range shooting profile of a team that made the fewest threes in the league last season. I like the fact that in fellow backcourt mates Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs, Richardson can toggle roles, with those players being capable of handling some of the on-ball creation that I think Richardson will lack at the next level.

26. Brooklyn Nets (via New York Knicks): Ben Saraf, PG, Ratiopharm Ulm

27. Brooklyn Nets (via Houston Rockets): Danny Wolf, F/C, Michigan

The Best Version: The handle and passing are legitimate, and there is an audacity to how he utilizes both that is impressive. As a pick-and-roll operator, his height allows him to access passing lanes that few players can—think Joe Ingles with more size. The passing in general is perhaps the greatest cause for excitement, as Wolf is inventive and reads defenses well. Although he has to value the ball more at the next level—he had just a 1.1 assist-to-turnover rate in his three years in college. The rebounding is legitimate and should lead to some fun grab-and-go opportunities at the next level. Because of the idiosyncratic nature of his game, he needs to be running second-unit offenses as a player that can present serious matchup challenges.

What Concerns Me: Does he become a man without a position? We just don’t see a lot of ball-handling fives, and he’s probably not a good enough athlete to stand up at the four position. While as fluid as you’ll ever see a seven-footer be in terms of footwork and balance, there is no vertical explosion in his game. The shot mechanics are funky and slow, but we have seen stretch bigs get away with worse at this level, so if he can become a consistent threat as a shooter, it really optimizes his handle to establish a pump-and-drive game, as he gets no separation on-ball unless he’s receiving a screen. There’s a lot to like here in terms of uniquely weaponizable skills at his size, but there’s a reason we don’t see this type of player often—and it’s because it requires organizational flexibility and ingenuity.

The Fit: Oh look, the Nets got a fourth ballhandler—and their second of the very unique variety. The fit is tough to judge, with the Nets having so many young players who need the ball in their hands to develop on a team that doesn’t really have an identity at the moment. Wolf being paired with another player from Israel, in a city with such a large Jewish population, is worth noting from a purely business and human-interest standpoint.

28. Boston Celtics: Hugo Gonzalez, SF, Real Madrid

29. Charlotte Hornets (via Phoenix Suns): Liam McNeeley, SF, Connecticut

The Best Version: At his best, McNeeley presents as a knockdown shooter who can also give you some playmaking as a ballhandler in secondary actions, à la Mike Dunleavy Jr. Off the ball, McNeely is constantly on the move and has a smart understanding of how to utilize screens based on defensive positioning to get himself open, where he shoots an on-balance, effortless ball out to great distance—shot 36% from 25-plus feet. I love the passing out of defenses committing to him, and I think he’s going to be very good as a pick-and-roll ballhandler. The one-and-done Husky also gets how to use his own movement to aid teammates in getting good looks—a skill probably sharpened while playing with fellow 2025 draft alums: Asa Newell, Cooper Flagg, and Derik Queen at Montverde. The percentages on the shot—38.1% FG; 31.7% 3PT—don’t alarm me, as the mechanics look good, the lower body work is done early, and he shot 86.6% from the line.

What Concerns Me: McNeeley is a minus athlete for an NBA wing. Now, he compensates with good toughness and an ability to absorb contact and finish, but he’s just not going to get by many players at the NBA level, and there has to be some concerns about him staying in front of them as well. That, of course, means that much of his success is going to hinge upon his ability to present as a very legitimate shot threat..

The Fit: The Hornets were clearly prioritizing shooting, and in McNeeley, they get a player that could become the best shooter in this class. There is some redundancy in fit and concerns with Knueppel and McNeeley, but I like both players, and they can complement each other and their new teammates because of their ability to create or be productive as off-ball shooters.

30. Los Angeles Clippers (via Oklahoma City Thunder): Yanic Konan Niederhasuer, C, Penn State

Thanks for reading!