Eastern Conference Playoff Preview (Remix)
A free for all, playoff free-for-all, Eastern Conference edition. Corrected for my poor Play-In predictions...
Well, hello there. I decided I wanted to do an NBA playoffs preview as a supplementary send-out, but seeing as we all know brevity isn’t my thing, I’m making this part preview and part prognostication. And oh look, I even included a handy bracket that took me far too long to make. Isn’t it pretty? (Don’t answer that, I’m fragile.) Yet, I fully understand if you’re not looking for more than just picks or wanting simply a preview of the first rounds. So, I will be sending this in two parts: first the Eastern Conference playoffs through to the finals. And then the Western Conference playoffs through to the finals. I tried to structure this in a way that caters to being able to skim through the matchups and predictions, as I broke it down by conferences and rounds. This is my first go at this, so I’m here for any/all comments, concerns, criticisms, and outright loathing (if hate-reading is your thing). Please drop me a comment about anything you liked or would like to see from similar pieces in the future. Now that this lengthy preamble has only further reified the quip about brevity, let’s get into the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Email users, as always, click “load all images”
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
#8 Miami Heat (46-36) vs. #1 Boston Celtics (64-18)
Season Series: 3-0 BOS
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-3 MIA (’23)
All-Time Playoff Record: 20-17 MIA (’10 BOS 4-1; ’11 MIA 4-1; ’12 MIA 4-3; ’20 BOS 4-2; ’22 BOS 4-3; ’23 4-3 MIA)
What to Expect: This is the sport's best rivalry, so it’s a shame that Miami won’t be at full force going into this matchup. The Celtics dominated the season series, winning all three contests by an average of 15 points per game. As we know though, playoff Miami is a different beast, so basically throw all that shit out. Jimmy Butler’s MCL injury likely renders this series far less competitive than the last two playoff matchups, which both culminated in 7-game epics. Yet, when it comes to these interminable Heat, with Spo at the helm, and a roster that’s tougher than my skin after Burning Man, nothing would surprise me. Miami is going to have to lean hard on Tyler Herro for offense, but with Derrick White and Jrue Holiday on the other side of things, I expect Herro to be woefully inefficient in his efforts to will Miami to viability—he’s shot just 41.8% in his career against Boston, though to his credit, he was really good against the Celts this season, averaging 23.7 points on 49.1% from the field, including 4.7 makes from distance per game. Ultimately, Miami’s offensive struggles will prove too much to overcome against the Celtics.
Biggest Concerns: Boston’s toughness; Miami’s go-to scorer
Matchup to Watch: Kristaps Porziņģis vs. Bam Adebayo. Bam’s mobility and strength make him one of the few bigs who has the physical tools necessary to stifle the Celtics center. Porziņģis' ability to draw Bam from the basket will give Tatum and Brown driving lanes that will really hurt the Heat defensively.
Prediction: BOS wins 4-2. With Jimmy out, Boston has the talent advantage by a significant margin. Miami gets a win or two just based on coaching and toughness.
#7 Philadelphia 76ers (47-35) vs. #2 New York Knicks (50-32)
Season Series: 3-1 NYK
Last Playoff Matchup: 3-0 NYK (’89)
All-Time Playoff Record: 21-12 PHI (’50 PHI 2-1; ’51 NYK 3-2; ’52 NYK 3-1; ’54 PHI 2-0; ’59 PHI 2-0; ’68 PHI 4-2; ’78 PHI 4-0; ’83 PHI 4-0; ’89 NYK 3-0)
What to Expect: First off, it’s wild that two former bitter in-state rivals who have now remained in the same conference this long somehow haven’t met in the playoffs in 35 years. Both teams have massive playoff liabilities, as Thibs' career postseason record is a worrisome 31-41, while Joel Embiid has established a history of depressing postseason injuries and performances. In the season series, the 76ers did not surpass 100 points in a single contest, averaging a meager 86.5 in the four games. But, three of those games did come after Embiid’s meniscus injury. Yet, I have very little confidence in the fidelity of that knee (perhaps I’m a bit gun shy trusting knees at the moment), particularly after Embiid left the Sixers game early last Friday and then sat out their last matchup of the season as a precaution. If Embiid can go the full series, I may come to regret my prediction, but honestly, there is something about the way these Knicks have gritted out tough wins while really finding their focus as a unit of overachievers who play their asses off that I admire. Philadelphia doesn’t have the dogs for this fight with their alpha coming in wounded. Brunson continues his storybook run and is the best player in the series.
Biggest Concerns: Thibs' inability to adjust in the playoffs; Embiid’s health; Paul Reed’s locker room material
Matchup to Watch: Kyle Lowry vs. Jalen Brunson. Brunson’s numbers against the Sixers were a relatively pedestrian 22.3 points on 40% from the floor and 30% from distance in those ugly defensive slogs. Not that this series couldn’t devolve into something similar, but with Lowry being the most capable defender at the guard position on this Sixers roster, it’ll be interesting to see how Coach Nurse may try to use Lowry in spots to harass the Knicks point guard.
Prediction: NYK wins 4-3. This prediction is giving the benefit of the doubt to Embiid playing more than three games in the series. If he doesn’t, this matchup could be light work for the Knicks.
#6 Indiana Pacers (47-35) vs. #3 Milwaukee Bucks (49-33)
Season Series: 4-1 IND
Last Playoff Matchup: 3-2 IND (’00)
All-Time Playoff Record: 6-2 IND (’99 IND 3-0; ’00 IND 3-2)
What to Expect: Though Indiana dominated the regular season series, going 4-1 while averaging 128.8 points, every game, including a point guard masterclass conducted by Tyrese Haliburton in the MST semifinals, occurred before Haliburton was hamstrung by a bothersome hamstring. Giannis being out for multiple games for a Milwaukee team that is already pretty suspect defensively leads me to believe that the Pacers are going to make this series about scoring and pace. This is an aging Bucks team that has looked lost since switching to Doc Rivers (the Bucks are 17-19 since making the change), a coach not exactly known for his ability to adjust to difficulties in the playoffs, meaning the Bucks go out in ignominious fashion. This series likely becomes a referendum on this group, as talent-wise, despite being the oldest team in the league, Milwaukee should have enough (as long as Giannis only misses two games) to beat a plucky Indiana group that has never felt quite as potent since Haliburton’s injury. Yet, nothing I’ve seen these last four months leads me to believe that the Bucks are mentally tough enough to assert themselves in this series.
Biggest Concerns: Giannis’ injury status; Dame guarding anybody; Doc Rivers’ lack of flexible strategies
Matchup to Watch: Brook Lopez vs. Myles Turner. It’s rare that we get a matchup of mastodons in the paint nowadays, but these two 3-and-D bigs love to bang bodies and bomb treys. This should make for some fun physicality as both players probably end up trying a bit too hard at times to one-up the other stylistically.
Prediction: IND wins 4-2. Indiana makes Milwaukee look old as TJ McConnell and Tyrese Haliburton put constant pressure on the porous Bucks perimeter defense. Giannis returns and makes it interesting, but it’s too little, too late.
#5 Orlando Magic (47-35) vs. #4 Cleveland Cavaliers (49-33)
Season Series: 2-2
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-2 ORL (’09)
All-Time Playoff Record: 4-2 ORL (’09 ORL 4-2)
What to Expect: This matchup will probably be the least watched of the first-round series, and that’s too bad, because this has the potential to showcase some old-school Eastern Conference defense, as Orlando was third in defensive rating (110.8), while Cleveland finished seventh (112.1). Oddly, this series potentially ends up an audition for Donovan Mitchell, as the Cavaliers seem likely to move him this off-season, barring a culture-changing run through these playoffs. Which I don’t see from a Cavs group that limped to the end of the season, going 8-12 over their last 20. Expect this to be Paolo’s coming-out party, as he had his second-highest scoring game of his young career against these very same Cavs back on Dec. 6th. This series has several fun individual matchups with Mobley vs. Paolo, Suggs vs. Mitchell, and Isaac vs. Everybody. Ultimately, something just feels weird with this Cleveland group, and this Orlando team, which has really galvanized around a defensive identity, will bully the Cavaliers much as we saw New York do last season.
Biggest Concerns: Evan Mobley’s outside shooting; JB Bickerstaff’s post-season coaching; Orlando’s young players adjusting to the big stage
Matchup to Watch: Donovan Mitchell vs. Jalen Suggs. This may be the spiciest individual matchup in the first round, as the intensity and physicality in this duel is going to levy some bruised bodies and egos. I fully expect these two to go nose-to-nose at least once before this series is over.
Prediction: Orlando wins 4-2. Orlando is a team on the rise, and while I have concerns about how a group so wet behind the ears will perform in their first playoff series together, I don’t think it will be too intense a struggle against a Cleveland team that doesn’t feel very mentally tough. Paolo will have his first real moments on a national stage, and Orlando wins in a series that is more exciting for its intensity than its beauty.
Eastern Conference Semifinals
#5 Orlando Magic (47-35) vs. #1 Boston Celtics (64-18)
Season Series: 2-1 BOS
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-2 BOS (’10)
All-Time Playoff Record: 9-8 ORL (’95 BOS 3-1; ’09 ORL 4-3; ’10 BOS 4-2)
What to Expect: Both teams can really defend, so watching some of these games have stretches of constrictive perimeter defense is going to be a joy to watch if you like pitcher’s duels. Boston’s tendency to lose contests when they struggle from the perimeter will cost them a game or two in these defensive battles, particularly with Orlando having the type of rangy forwards that can stifle Tatum’s much-improved driving game—his 47.1% finishing rate was the best of his career. But this is the type of series where Boston’s experience and Orlando’s penchant for stretches of offensive ineptitude—they were only 24th in scoring this season—prove too much for the Magic to overcome.
Biggest Concerns: Magic long-range shooting as their 35.2% as a team was 24th in the league, while Boston also attempted 11.2 more threes per contest than Orlando this season.
Matchup to Watch: Jonathan Isaac vs. Jayson Tatum. If you were to ask AI to generate a player most physiologically equipped to defend Jayson Tatum, it would be Jonathan Isaac. Isaac’s length (6’10 with a 7’1 wingspan) and athleticism means he’ll be a pest for Tatum when he comes in off the bench as a defensive stopper.
Prediction: BOS wins 4-2. The Paolo-Tatum matchup is going to be such a treat, as those are two of the most skilled big forwards that we’ve had in the league. I believe in the mission this Boston team is on and think that after getting hit in the mouths a couple of times in this series, they get serious and send the precocious Magic packing.
#6 Indiana Pacers (47-35) vs. #2 New York Knicks (50-32)
Season Series: 2-1 IND
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-2 IND (’13)
All-Time Playoff Record: 22-19 IND (’93 NYK 4-1; ’94 NYK 4-3; ’95 IND 4-3; ’98 IND 4-1; ’99 NYK 4-2; ’00 4-2 IND; ’13 IND 4-2)
What to Expect: Where these franchises once engaged in epic displays of defensive determination, now the scorekeeper is sure to get a lot more work, as over the last two seasons both teams averaged more than 120 points in the seven games they played (IND – 122.7; NYK – 121.1). New York won four of those seven contests, which were decided by a total of 11 points. Haliburton before the injury was averaging 23.8 points and 12.5 assists on 49.7% from the floor and 40.3% from distance. Post-injury, Haliburton is less destructive and efficient, averaging 16.8 points and 9.3 assists while shooting 45.5% and 32.4% respectively. Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson scored the most points in the league over the last month—Brunson’s 596 points were 159 more than second-place finisher Devin Booker’s 437. This series ends up more of a three-point shooting display, with Brunson as the best player in the series, willing this Knicks team past a Pacers group that isn’t good enough defensively to get the stops they’ll need late in games.
Biggest Concerns: Does New York run out of gas too soon?
Matchup to Watch: Jalen Brunson vs. Andrew Nembhard. Haliburton is too weak a defender, both in terms of physicality and capability, to guard Brunson, so I expect Nembhard, who is tough and likes to stick his nose into the action, to be mainly tasked with the assignment against Brunson. Brunson enjoys playing against physical guards, as his footwork and craft usually exploits their overexuberance. I think that outcome is a safe bet in this matchup as well.
Prediction: NYK wins 4-2. I have concerns about New York’s ability to hang with the Pacers considering the sheer amount of minutes their players will have played down the stretch, but I think their toughness proves too much.
Eastern Conference Finals
#2 New York Knicks (50-32) vs. #1 Boston Celtics (64-18)
Season Series: 4-1 BOS
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-2 NYK (’13)
All-Time Playoff Record: 36-31 BOS (’51 NYK 2-0; ’52 NYK 2-1; ’53 NYK 3-1; ’54 BOS 2-0; ’55 BOS 2-1; ’67 BOS 3-1; ’69 BOS 4-2; ’72 NYK 4-1; ’73 NYK 4-3; ’74 BOS 4-1; ’84 NYK 4-3; ’88 BOS 3-1; ’90 NYK 3-2; ’11 BOS 4-0; ’13 NYK 4-2)
What to Expect: Boston dominated the season series, and I expect much of the same as New York will likely be out of bullets in the chamber by the time they reach the Eastern Conference Finals. OG Anunoby is another tough matchup for Tatum, but I’m fully expecting Jaylen Brown to come in wanting to atone for his performance in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals (19 points a game on 41.8% from the field and 16.3% from distance with a rough 3.6 turnovers to boot). Derrick White and Jrue Holiday give Brunson 48 minutes of hell, while Porziņģis, who averaged 21.6 points per game on 3.6 makes from downtown against his former employer, gets a bit of revenge by softening New York’s defensive underbelly by drawing Isaiah Hartenstein away from the basket.
Biggest Concerns: How New York generates offense with Brunson off-ball; Can Anunoby remain healthy this deep into the playoffs?
Matchup to Watch: Jalen Brunson vs. Jrue Holiday. Brunson has been good against the Knicks this season, averaging 27.4 points per game in the matchup, but Holiday becomes a different animal come playoff time, especially since the lack of his usual offensive burden means he can go full bore on Brunson on the defensive end.
Prediction: BOS wins 4-2. The Celtics have too many good defensive players to throw at Brunson. Brunson’s story reaches its final chapter as the Celtics prove why they’ve been the league’s best team start to finish.
NBA Finals
#1 Boston Celtics (64-18) vs. #2 Denver Nuggets (57-25)
Season Series: 2-0 DEN
Last Playoff Matchup: N/A
All-Time Playoff Record: N/A
What to Expect: There is so much positional intrigue in this matchup, from Holiday vs. Murray at the lead guard position, to Tatum and Gordon as these super athletic power forwards, to the overconfident gunning from Jaylen Brown and Michael Porter Jr. at the small forward slots. Brown has averaged 27 a game on 55.8% from the field over the last 2 seasons against Denver. Porter Jr., on the other hand, has been bad in his career against Boston, mustering just 10.4 points on 19% from distance in the eight games he’s played against the Celtics. Both of these teams will be up for the moment, as each has made a finals appearance in the last three seasons. The series inevitably comes down to who can execute most consistently down the stretch, with Boston’s over-reliance on the three costing them in the end, as Jokić hits backbreaker after backbreaker in a game 7 win in Boston.
Biggest Concerns: Denver’s third option; Porziņģis’ health this deep into the playoffs; Murray’s health this deep into the playoffs; Joe Mazzulla’s over-reliance on drive and kick basketball
Matchup to Watch: Jrue Holiday vs. Jamal Murray. Murray is more physical than he’s given credit for, so the battle between him and the Celtics' dogged defender is going to be a treat.
Prediction: DEN wins 4-3 in a slobber-knocker of a series that features several signature performances.
Thanks for playing! Don’t forget to check out the Western Conference edition as well.