Western Conference Playoff Preview (Remix)
A free for all, playoff free-for-all, Western Conference edition. Corrected for my poor Play-In predictions...
Well, hello there. I decided I wanted to do an NBA playoffs preview as a supplementary send-out, but seeing as we all know brevity isn’t my thing, I’m making this part preview and part prognostication. And oh look, I even included a handy bracket that took me far too long to make. Isn’t it pretty? (Don’t answer that, I’m fragile.) Yet, I fully understand if you’re not looking for more than just picks or wanting simply a preview of the first rounds. So, I will be sending this in two parts: first the Eastern Conference playoffs through to the finals. And then the Western Conference playoffs through to the finals. I tried to structure this in a way that caters to being able to skim through the matchups and predictions, as I broke it down by conferences and rounds. This is my first go at this, so I’m here for any/all comments, concerns, criticisms, and outright loathing (if hate-reading is your thing). Please drop me a comment about anything you liked or would like to see from similar pieces in the future. Now that this lengthy preamble has only further reified the quip about brevity, let’s get into the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Email users, as always, click “load all images”
Western Conference Quarterfinals
#8 New Orleans Pelicans (49-33) vs. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
Season Series: 2-1 OKC
Last Playoff Matchup: N/A
All-Time Playoff Record: N/A
What to Expect: Were Zion healthy, this would look like a very different series. But considering his hurt hamstring and the way that significantly affects his style of play, he is likely to be a non-factor in the series, even if he's able to return at some point. The injury is really a shame as there is perhaps no more self-referential performative display than Williamson getting hurt in the midst of the best game of his career. In an ideal world, this is where Brandon Ingram would step up, but he has been a mixed bag this season, averaging his least amount of points per game in five years (20.8). And despite having a great game on Friday, scoring a team-high 24 points in a huge Pels win—their sixth against the Kings this season—I think being defended by Jalen Williams is likely to be a nightmarish experience for the Pels forward. Interestingly, in a matchup of two young and exciting teams, this may be an intense defensive battle, as these were two of the league’s stingiest defenses this season. Don’t be surprised if we see a bit too much Jonas Valančiūnas early, as the Pelicans will likely slow the game down and see if JV can batter Chet inside. OKC has too many studs, and this beat-up Pels team sadly goes out on a broken shield.
Biggest Concerns: Zion’s health; CJ McCollum’s slump; Chet’s sternum
Matchup to Watch: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Jose Alvarado. Watching the wily Alvarado chase Shai all over the court is going to be a hell of a lot of fun, as few players unsettle ballhandlers more than grand theft Alvarado, but even less are more stolid with the ball in their hands than Shai.
Prediction: OKC wins 4-2. This could end up OKC in five, as I have serious concerns about where the Pelicans draw consistent offense from, particularly since CJ McCollum decided to stink the last couple of important games the Pels have played (maybe it’s the LBB curse), averaging just 8 points on 30% from the floor in New Orleans' two play-in games.
#7 Los Angeles Lakers (47-35) vs. #2 Denver Nuggets (57-25)
Season Series: 3-0 DEN
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-0 DEN (’23)
All-Time Playoff Record: 25-12 LAL (’79 LAL 2-1; ’85 LAL 4-1; ’87 LAL 3-0; ’08 LAL 4-0; ’09 LAL 4-2; ’12 LAL 4-3; ’20 LAL 4-1; ’23 DEN 4-0)
What to Expect: While Los Angeles basically owns Denver in the playoffs historically, having won seven of their eight series matchups all-time, last year’s sweep by Denver—despite apparently being “the most competitive sweep ever” *groan*—is the blueprint by which I expect the Nuggets to dominate this series. From that playoff series through this season, the Nuggets have won seven straight games against the Lakers. Jokić does Jokić things against Los Angeles, averaging 26.8 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10 assists in the last two seasons against LA, but it’s Jamal Murray, and his 28.3 points per game in his playoff career against the Lakers, that’s the player that turns the tide in this series, as Denver will feast on Jokić-Murray pick and rolls.
Biggest Concerns: Anthony Davis cannot contend with Jokić on the block (I mean who can?); Murray cooking mediocre defensive guards for LA; Darvin Ham is no match strategically for Michael Malone.
Matchup to Watch: Jamal Murray vs. D’Angelo Russell. Murray smoked the Lakers in last year’s playoffs, putting up 32.5 points per contest on 61/40/95 shooting percentages. D’Lo has been great for the Lakers this season, but he really struggled in last year’s playoff matchup, averaging just 6.3 points on 32.3%. He’ll be better than that this time around, but I expect Murray to goad Russell into hero ball, as Murray’s own incredible level of difficulty in his shot-making is likely to draw Russell into a one-on-one matchup that will hurt the Lakers.
Prediction: DEN wins 4-2. The Nuggets will hold a 3-1 series lead through the first four contests, resulting in it never feeling that tight of a series despite it featuring some hard-fought games.
#6 Phoenix Suns (49-33) vs. #3 Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26)
Season Series: 3-0 PHX
Last Playoff Matchup: N/A
All-Time Playoff Record: N/A
What to Expect: Phoenix seems to have Minnesota’s number, as the Timberwolves have lost 10 of their last 11 against the Suns. That doesn’t mean I trust this Phoenix squad, who despite finishing a strong 7-3, were a very bad fourth-quarter team, averaging a league-worst 25.1 points in the final period. In this series, those late-game struggles will cost them against a big and rugged Timberwolves group who was fourth in the league in defensive rating and is poised to take the next step in this franchise’s journey. Ant ends up the best player in this series as he continues his ascendance, with the Suns ultimately losing on the road in another bad game-seven defeat for the organization.
Biggest Concerns: What Minnesota does with Rudy Gobert when Phoenix plays Durant at center; Can Phoenix hold up defensively over the course of a series?
Matchup to Watch: Bradley Beal vs. Anthony Edwards. Down the stretch, Beal started to look like the producer the Suns hoped for, scoring 19.3 points a game on 55.6% shooting from the field, and 64.6% from distance, including a 36-point performance in the last game of the season against Minnesota. Both players are physical guards who can get it going offensively. While Ant will likely split time on Beal, it will be fun to watch these two compete.
Prediction: MIN wins 4-3 in a series that features a couple of dud performances by both teams.
#5 Dallas Mavericks (50-32) vs. #4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-31)
Season Series: 2-1 LAC
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-3 LAC (‘21)
All-Time Playoff Record: 8-5 LAC (’20 LAC 4-2; ’21 LAC 4-3)
What to Expect: For the third time in five seasons, we get this playoff matchup, and boy am I thankful for it. I fully expect this series to be the most competitive of the first-round matchups. We were spoiled by the epic seven-game battle these two teams engaged in the ’21 playoffs; a match-up that saw both Kawhi and Luka go full God Mode, with Kawhi’s Clippers ultimately winning the series 4-3 on the back of some of his best work in a seven-game series, averaging: 32.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.0 block, while shooting 61.2% from the floor, 42.5% from distance, and 89.5% from the line. Luka, for his part, was more than up to the task, hanging: 35.7 points, 10.3 assists, 7.9 rebounds, and even 1.3 steals for good measure, while going 49.0% from the floor and 40.8% from three, while also dropping 40 on three different occasions. This time around, Luka and Kyrie end up being the highest-scoring duo in the first round and eke past a Clippers team that I am perpetually incapable of trusting. That being said, the Clips have what it takes to compete offensively with a Dallas group that comes into the playoffs as the hottest team in the West (12-4 over the last month of the season) but will struggle with the Clippers' multipronged perimeter attack. But, if Kawhi’s injury proves significant enough that he is hampered in the playoffs yet again, render everything I just said moot and take Dallas in five.
Biggest Concerns: Kawhi’s injury; Harden’s history of playoff letdowns; Dallas’ perimeter defense
Matchup to Watch: Ivaca Zubac vs. Daniel Gafford. Both Luka and Harden love to operate in the pick and roll with their respective centers, but it’ll be the rebounding battle between these two that may ultimately decide the series.
Prediction: Dallas wins 4-3 in an offensively exciting series that features multiple game-winners.
Western Conference Semifinals
#5 Dallas Mavericks (50-32) vs. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
Season Series: 3-1 OKC
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-1 OKC (‘16)
All-Time Playoff Record: 14-9 OKC (’84 DAL 3-2; ’87 DAL 3-1; ’11 DAL 4-1; ’12 OKC 4-0; ’16 OKC 4-1)
What to Expect: This series is going to test how legit Dallas’ run of defensive competence down the stretch really was, as OKC averaged 124.5 points per game against the Mavericks during the season. All the stars are going to come out to play in this one, but ultimately, the Thunder’s depth and ability to generate offense at all three levels prove too much for a Dallas team that will come into this one a bit exhausted after exchanging haymakers with the Clippers.
Biggest Concerns: Dallas’ big men trying to stay in front of Chet off the dribble; Anyone trying to stay in front of Shai or Kyrie off the dribble; how much XP does Luka have left by the end of the series
Matchup to Watch: Jalen Williams vs. Derrick Jones Jr. I could be wrong and the Mavericks could opt for one of their other Jr.s to defend J-Dub, but I don’t think P.J. Washington has the chops to handle Williams off the dribble and in the open court. The rangy and athletic Jones Jr. could be the key to success if he can slow down the Thunder second year star, who is coming into the series recovering from an ankle sprain.
Prediction: OKC wins 4-3. I may be a bit too spellbound by how adult the Thunder have been this season, but I don’t think this moment will be too big for OKC and they outlast an eventually gassed Dallas team in a series that will be an epic battle.
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) vs. #2 Denver Nuggets (57-25)
Season Series: 2-2
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-1 DEN (’23)
All-Time Playoff Record: 5-5 (’04 MIN 4-1; ’23 DEN 4-1)
What to Expect: I know that everyone likes to talk about Minnesota’s size being a problem for Jokić, but in the last two years he’s averaged 29.7 points and 11.0 rebounds against the Timberwolves while shooting 62.2% from two-point range. Anthony Edwards has been great in this matchup himself, hanging 26 points along with 4.5 assists in their four games this year. More important than his damage against Minnesota though, the Joker has owned Rudy the last five seasons, averaging 29.6 points and 10.9 rebounds on 60.5% from the floor. This series is going to get chippy and aggressive as Minnesota knows that the only way out is through. That being said, Murray and Jokić will prove too much and too poised.
Biggest Concerns: The Denver bench contending with Naz Reid; Kat’s late game foibles
Matchup to Watch: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Aaron Gordon. Few players are better equipped to handle the versatile Towns than Gordon, who offers both the strength to contend with him inside and the mobility to contest KAT’s shots on the perimeter. In last year’s playoff matchup, KAT averaged just 18.2 points on 45.9% from the field.
Prediction: DEN wins 4-2. This series is going to be played at a fever pitch, but that level of energy will prove too volatile for the less mature Timberwolves. Jokić and Murray are their regular brilliant selves late in a few decisive games that make the difference in the series.
Western Conference Finals
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Season Series: 3-1 OKC
Last Playoff Matchup: 4-1 OKC (’11)
All-Time Playoff Record: 12-9 OKC (’78 OKC 4-2; ’88 DEN 3-2; ’94 DEN 3-2; ’11 OKC 4-1)
What to Expect: I care little about the fact that the Thunder were the better team during the regular season, in large part because all four matchups came before the All-Star break, essentially the line of demarcation for when the Nuggets started taking the regular season seriously. I see no alternate universe where Nikola Jokić doesn’t go full Galactus on Chet Holmgren and devour his world. OKC lacks the interior heft to handle Jokić. I will also show my hand and admit that I believe in the inevitability of young teams learning and growing through playoff lessons. And this is where the upstart Thunder learn a harsh one.
Biggest Concerns: OKC’s lack of interior size and strength
Matchup to watch: Nikola Jokić vs. Chet Holmgren. During the season, Chet played well against Denver, averaging 19.5 points on 56.9% from the floor. But for the Thunder to really be a threat in this series, he will have to take advantage of Jokić giving him a lot of space to shoot and try to be uncharacteristically aggressive as a scorer.
Prediction: DEN wins 4-1. The Thunder run into a buzzsaw, as Jokić likely hangs in the 35-point, 20-rebound range for the course of what amounts to a short series.
NBA Finals
#1 Boston Celtics (64-18) vs. #2 Denver Nuggets (57-25)
Season Series: 2-0 DEN
Last Playoff Matchup: N/A
All-Time Playoff Record: N/A
What to Expect: There is so much positional intrigue in this matchup, from Holiday vs. Murray at the lead guard position, to Tatum and Gordon as these super athletic power forwards, to the overconfident gunning from Jaylen Brown and Michael Porter Jr. at the small forward slots. Brown has averaged 27 a game on 55.8% from the field over the last 2 seasons against Denver. Porter Jr., on the other hand, has been bad in his career against Boston, mustering just 10.4 points on 19% from distance in the eight games he’s played against the Celtics. Both of these teams will be up for the moment, as each has made a finals appearance in the last three seasons. The series inevitably comes down to who can execute most consistently down the stretch, with Boston’s over-reliance on the three costing them in the end, as Jokić hits backbreaker after backbreaker in a game 7 win in Boston.
Biggest Concerns: Denver’s third option; Porziņģis’ health this deep into the playoffs; Murray’s health this deep into the playoffs; Joe Mazzulla’s over-reliance on drive and kick basketball
Matchup to Watch: Jrue Holiday vs. Jamal Murray. Murray is more physical than he’s given credit for, so the battle between him and the Celtics' dogged defender is going to be a treat.
Prediction: DEN wins 4-3 in a slobber-knocker of a series that features several signature performances.
Thanks for playing! Don’t forget to check out the Eastern Conference edition as well.