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#25 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
Ranking Toronto was a tough one, as I could see a path where this group coalesces into one of those sneaky “the sum is greater than the parts” teams that should learn from Minnesota on how to leverage their size into becoming a gritty defensive unit. Still, there are a lot of roster moves likely to be made this offseason for a team that was already completely reworked through deals this year, as only three players from the team's 2023-24 opening day 15-man roster remain under contract. That’s a lot of transition to be conducted and new names to be learned before I believe this group can really put together anything more than a fringe play-in flirtation. Were it not for Scottie Barnes, the Raps would be near the bottom of the team rankings, but only Cade Cunningham can be put in the argument as a viable contender for the best player among the teams behind Toronto.
#25 Toronto Raptors
Record: 25-57 (25th); 99.91 Pace (12th); 111.8 Offensive Rating (24th); 118.1 Defensive Rating (26th); -6.3 Net Rating (24th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $176,164,070 (23rd)
Cap Space: $-35,164,070 (8th)
Current Roster: Ochai Agbaji, Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett, Chris Boucher, D.J. Carton, Gradey Dick, Javon Freeman-Liberty, Mouhamadou Gueye, Jalen McDaniels, Kelly Olynyk, Jakob Poeltl
Key Free Agents: Bruce Brown (Unrestricted – Team Option), Jordan Nwora (Unrestricted), Immanuel Quickley (Restricted), Gary Trent Jr. (Unrestricted)
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Biggest Positive: Scottie Barnes. I will freely admit that I still have doubts about Barnes' viability as a number one option, but there is no doubting that whatever he is, he has an impact on nearly every play when he's on the floor. This past season, Barnes ranked either first or second on the Raptors in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks per game—all of which set personal career-highs. While admirable, this doesn't feel sustainable from the standpoint of physical output. To that end, when on the floor, Barnes goes harder than Vibranium while displaying the type of infectious energy that is a coach's dream, but he'll have to learn when to find moments to throttle down for the sake of his own longevity.
After entering the league as the 4th pick in the 2021 draft by Toronto, the biggest concern for Barnes’ game was whether he would become a viable enough shooter to keep defenses honest. After averaging only 0.8 made threes per contest on 29% shooting from behind the arc in his first two seasons, Barnes had done little to quell those concerns. But there is no coincidence that Barnes' first All-Star nod coincided with a massive improvement in his shooting. Last season, Barnes more than doubled his threes made per game (1.7) while also increasing his percentage to a far more respectable 34.1%. Additionally, Barnes averaged a career high in catch-and-shoot efficiency (39.1%) and, more importantly, frequency (26.9%). The threat of the three is key to keeping defenders from sagging off him and compromising spacing, because Barnes is at his best when he can use his pump fake and drive game to get into the lane for either a short pull-up or to become a distributor.
Biggest Negative: Lack of a number one option. I know Scottie Barnes fans want to come after me for this one, but I promise I mean no offense. Let it first be understood that on my personal Mount Rushmore of players is Scottie Pippen, the greatest second banana this side of Diddy Kong. To me, that’s what Barnes’ game projects as—a top-notch number two. Last season, Barnes averaged a career-high 19.9 points per game, which ranked him just 39th in the league in scoring. Sure, Barnes is still young, although even among players who have been in the league for three seasons or fewer, Barnes ranked sixth in scoring (Cunningham – 22.7, Banchero – 22.6, Thomas – 22.5, Wembanyama – 21.4, Şenğun – 21.1). No way is that intended as an indictment, as that is impressive company to keep, but it just reflects that Barnes is unlikely to become more than a very good scorer. Considering the variety of his skillset, that’s perfectly fine. Yet, between Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett, the Raptors don’t have a true “get you a bucket” individual offensive weapon. This fosters an egalitarian approach that allowed six players to average double figures last season on the way to the team ranking sixth in the league in assists per game (28.5). Still, there is ultimately a cap on that style of play. Perhaps Barnes has another summer of significant growth and continues to prove me wrong. As it stands though, this Toronto roster offensively feels like a great backing band in need of a lead singer.
What’s Next: Between Bruce Brown, Gary Trent Jr., and Immanuel Quickley, the Raptors have some serious decisions to make about potential spending for a unit that doesn’t feel remotely close to being a viable top-eight conference finisher. Re-signing Quickley is a no-brainer as he was the jewel of the OG Anunoby deal. Brown has a team option for $23 million, which will almost certainly be picked up with the goal of moving him this summer, as that price is a bit steep for a group abundant with wings and not really in a position to overload their tax for Brown’s production, as it won’t move the needle much. Gary Trent Jr. will be interesting as he seems to be consistently undervalued for a player who has solid career averages of 14.3 points on 38.6% from distance. The fifth-year guard out of Duke could fetch a deal somewhere in the 3-year, $45-50 million range from the likes of Orlando or San Antonio, teams with cap space and in dire need of his outside shooting. With the late-season improvement of rookie Gradey Dick, that potential price tag for Trent Jr. would seem too much for Toronto to pay for a rotational player that takes away developmental minutes, particularly after opening the checkbook for Quickley. Though if both Brown and Trent Jr. move on, the Raptors will have to find a player in free agency to fill in depth at shooting guard. De’Anthony Melton, Gary Harris, or Josh Okogie could be a good fit.
Having learned their lesson from Fred VanVleet’s departure last summer, in terms of allowing a player to potentially leave in free agency with nothing to show for their troubles, the Raptors shrewdly dealt both OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam during the season. Having then lost three of their four best players in a span of less than eight months—leaving Chris Boucher as the sole remaining Raptor from the 2019 championship team— along with a hand injury to Barnes that forced him to miss the last quarter of the season, Toronto went into full tank mode in hopes of keeping their draft pick this summer. The pick would be dealt to San Antonio unless it landed in the top six of the lottery, which, thanks to the seventh worst record in Raptors history, was exactly where their odds placed them at the end of the season. Yet, the lottery selection gods are fickle beasts—just ask Blazers fans—and the Raptors landed in eighth, meaning Toronto would send the pick to San Antonio as latent compensation for the Jakob Poeltl deal. On the surface, losing such a high pick would seem like a negative, however the pick would have conveyed to the Spurs in the 2025 draft had Toronto stayed in the top six this summer, and with this year’s draft being down in terms of talent, and next year’s Raptors not projecting to be vastly improved, keeping their pick for a robust 2025 draft will be to the franchise’s benefit—especially when considering that Gradey Dick, who barely touched the floor the first half of this year, will still need plenty of developmental focus. Meaning that the Raptors will more than likely be content with the coming season being another focused more on growth and development.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Get confused about who they likley are next season. Toronto has managed to earn a record above .500 in nine of the last 11 seasons, so it’s understandable if the franchise sees itself as being competitive in the East next year, just so long as their version of competitive is vying for a play-in spot. With the Raptors continued roster upheaval this summer, were they even to hit on free agency, this group likely has too little shooting and too little individual playmaking to garner a significant enough jump from last season’s 25 wins to put them into a spot that should warrant the burden of expectation going into next season. Rather, Toronto should continue to focus on the development of their core group (Barnes, Barrett, Dick, and Quickley), each of whom will still only be 25 or younger going into next season.
Is There Hope?: Sure, but let it remain tempered. With Scottie Barnes having made his first All-Star team this past year, and new additions RJ Barrett and IQ both playing well after arriving in Toronto, the Raptors have some foundational pieces that can propel this group back towards viability. However, this roster as currently composed reflects the far too familiar Raptors formula of significant length with insignificant shooting. Toronto also has to find another point guard to provide ball handling off the bench, seeing as of right now Quickley and Barnes are the team’s sole ball handlers. Of course, general manager Masai Ujiri has earned more than enough equity to warrant faith in his ability to compose a roster that can eventually fight for playoff contention, so what moves he makes in terms of free agency will come to define what the team looks like in the coming seasons.
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