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#20 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...

Jun 14, 2024

Trying to evaluate the Warriors almost feels like a study in contradictions. They have plenty of young talent, but it’s the veterans that lead the pack. They’re overleveraged financially, but can actually put themselves into a fairly comfortable position by summer’s end. They have championship pedigree, but don’t really feel particularly viable as a contender. At the end of the day, what we’re likely seeing are the death rattles of a once vicious beast. That doesn’t mean they can’t still put up a fight, but they don’t have the vigor to take down the young predators now stalking the league. I do think that the Warriors could be less of a disjointed mess than they were last year, but that doesn’t mean I think they'll have what it takes to place themselves back atop the league’s food chain.

#20 Golden State Warriors

Record: 46-36 (16^th); 99.91 Pace (Tied-11^th); 116.9 Offensive Rating (9^th); 114.5 Defensive Rating (15^th); 2.4 Net Rating (13^th)

Total Salary Cap Allocations: $249,265,900 (2^nd)

Cap Space: $-108,265,900 (29^th)

Current Roster: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney ($3 million guaranteed), Moses Moody, Chris Paul (Non-Guaranteed), Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer (two-way), Andrew Wiggins

Key Free Agents: Gary Payton II (Unrestricted – Player Option), Lester Quinones (Restricted), Dario Saric (Unrestricted), Klay Thompson (Unrestricted)

Single Word Description: Crossroads

Biggest Positive: The youth movement. Look, the real answer here is always Steph, but his superlative-inducing greatness is a consistent north star. However, for the first time since Dray, Klay, and Steph were pups, the Warriors have a collection of young talent to be excited about. Now, in no way am I intimating that Kuminga, Podziemski, Moody, and Jackson-Davis are even a scintilla of the collective talent of the aforementioned troika, but there is something here to really grow upon, particularly with the leaps that Kuminga made this season. Going into the year, I was one of the dissenters where Kuminga was concerned, but after publicly feuding with Steve Kerr and privately confronting the coach about his role, Kuminga stepped up and showed out. His size and athleticism on the perimeter give the Warriors a dimension that they haven’t had since Andre Iguodala, and yet Kuminga still has lots of room to grow, particularly with his jumpshot, which isn’t bad—career 34% from distance—but could position him as a 20+ per night performer if he can improve it to the point where teams have to be honest on him defensively. As it stands, Kuminga provides explosive athleticism and stout defense for a team that really lacks that besides Gary Payton II’s spurts of health.

In terms of Moody, I will forever be higher on him than Steve Kerr seems to be, but his minutes per game have climbed every season in his three-year career, and he has responded by playing smart defense and upping his scoring to a respectable 8.8 per night last season. I hope that he is really given an opportunity this coming season to stretch his legs and show what he can do, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he is moved this offseason if the Warriors can find a deal where he becomes the incentive for someone to take Andrew Wiggins.

When it comes to rookies Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis, I think both of them played over their heads based on expectations but not outside of themselves. This means that what we saw this year seems not only replicable but able to be built upon. Podz hit a wall as the season went on, which, considering the amount of unbridled energy he played with, particularly as a rebounder from the guard spot—he was 11^th in the entire league (5.8 per game) amongst players at that position—and as a defensive roadblock, where he led the league in charges drawn (38), that seems completely fair. However, if he can just continue to become a more reliable shooter from distance (38.5%), there isn’t much that the rookie from Santa Clara takes off the table. In Jackson-Davis’ case, the verticality was a big addition for a Warriors team that plays below the rim with their bigs, as neither Looney, Draymond, or Sarić presented any type of lob threat. What was most exciting though, was during the stretch when Jackson-Davis started, he showed a penchant for playmaking out of the pick and roll that has lots of room to grow and can become a very valuable weapon for a Warriors team whose offensive potency relies on quick decision-making in terms of ball movement.

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Biggest Negative: Draymond Green. Stay with me here because this is a convoluted one. The Warriors were 33-22 in games that Draymond played in last season, meaning had he been able to control himself, the narrative around the team would likely be significantly different. If Draymond played the entirety of this season—minus games missed for injuries, of course—the Warriors are probably a 50-win team and a six-seed in the West. That doesn’t mean I think they would have beaten the likes of Minnesota in the first round, but it still would have made the year’s conclusion feel less bleak than being the first team ousted in the Play-In. Here’s the thing though, Draymond’s volatility is now just permanently baked into how you view him and the Warriors at large. It’s not a question of if he’ll do some dumb shit, it’s just a matter of when. That was what made Steph’s reaction when Draymond got ejected in the late-season matchup against Orlando so heartbreaking; we were watching the most resolute dam in the organization finally give way to the reality that Draymond is incapable of controlling himself with enough continuity to trust. Draymond means too much to this team both substantively and emotionally, and honestly, that’s a problem because he just can’t help himself. He did a wonderful job of paying all the requisite lip service and shooting cute ads that gave the impression that he was finally reformed, and then lost all that equity with the late-season silliness and the smear campaign on Rudy Gobert during his stint with TNT during the playoffs. Draymond may still be the Warriors' second most important player, and for a team that needs him as much as they do, that’s a terrifying reality to contend with.

What’s Next: That cap number is scary for a team that has continued to backslide since winning the title in ’22, but the Warriors actually have some moves that can be made to allow them to get under the luxury tax line this summer. It feels almost certain that Chris Paul’s non-guaranteed $30 million means he’ll be waived, as he is just too expensive for what he provided to this team. That’s not a knock on Paul, who is still a maestro when it comes to running an offense, but he isn’t the fulcrum point that tips the Warriors to championship viability, so incurring that much cost just doesn’t make sense. Golden State will also likley take the hit on the guaranteed $3 million on Kevon Looney and cut ties with one of their longest-running vets (9 seasons), rather than retain him this year and pay the full $8 million that he would be slated to earn. This one hurts, as Looney is about as good of a soldier as a franchise could ask for, but the declining athleticism and the ascendance of Trayce Jackson-Davis just render this an unfortunately necessary business decision. It also seems likely Gary Payton II opts out of his deal to sign a longer-term contract at a lower annual value, as this really benefits both team and player. GPII already tried spreading his wings and flying to Portland two off-seasons ago, only to realize that the fit for him is best in Golden State, where the Warriors can optimize his skills and minimize his liabilities in a way that few other teams can. Payton is a perennial injury concern, but the Warriors have enough depth at the wing positions to just bubble wrap Payton until the second half of the season—not that that ensures he won’t still get injured. Finally, the big decision is Klay—this is a hard one for me to be objective on, but here we go… If the Warriors mean business in terms of getting their cap sheet in order, and they should considering that Jonathan Kuminga’s extension is looming, they have to take a hardline stance with Klay that may end in a heartbreaking conclusion. To me, a two-plus-one around $20-23 million annually with the final year being a team option is the furthest you can push this. Klay is still a very good player—better than the narratives were framing him as this year—but he is a role player now, and while he is a Warriors legend, the Dubs cannot afford to pay him as such just based on past performance. What’s scary is that Klay’s 17.9 points per game on 38.7% from distance last season could still entice someone like the Sixers, Magic, Spurs, or even Jazz to come in and offer a larger annual amount, so this may come down to how much Klay really values finishing his career in Golden State. Selfishly, I hope he stays, but from a business standpoint, the Warriors can’t waver for a diminished version of Thompson. (I’m gonna go cry now.)

What They Shouldn’t Do: Over-extend themselves to re-sign Klay. I don’t need to really go into too much more depth on this, but between their cap sheet and the fact that Klay also takes away minutes from developing some of the other young perimeter players, they just have to be resolute with handling this situation in a manner that is driven by taking into account the future of this team first, and the adoration for the player second.

Is There Hope?: This team perhaps presents the most difficulty in answering this question. I really like the young players, but only Kuminga has the chance to be more than a very good secondary or tertiary piece. Meanwhile, the legends are getting long in the tooth, but are good enough that the Warriors can’t make a full pivot. The hope is there for the team to be a more viable threat than this past season, which really just felt like a year of stops and starts, but I think we have crested the hill in terms of championship potential.

Links to Other Team Reviews:

#30 Brooklyn Nets

#29 Washington Wizards

#28 Portland Trail Blazers

#27 Detroit Pistons

#26 Charlotte Hornets

#25 Toronto Raptors

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