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#17 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
The Miami Heat in many ways feel like the Lakers East, where as a playoff team, we have seen how this group galvanizes for the postseason grind, but tend not to impress much during the regular season. Additionally, much like Los Angeles, when evaluating the state of the franchise, it’s hard to take a fully pessimistic view because of their history of drawing stars. While I think LA actually has better talent at the moment, the differences in coaching and organizational decision-makers, and the fact that the Heat have far more interesting young players, forced me to put Miami a spot ahead of Los Angeles.
#17 Miami Heat
Record: 46-36 (tied-16th); 8th in East; 96.9 Pace (29th ); 113.3 Offensive Rating (21st); 111.5 Defensive Rating (5th); 1.8 Net Rating (17th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $198,220,499 (9th)
Cap Space: $-57,632,499 (22nd)
Current Roster: Bam Adebayo, Thomas Bryant, Alec Burks, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, Jamie Jaquez, Jr., Nikola Jović, Pelle Larsson, Kevin Love, Josh Richarson, Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, Isaiah Stevens, Kel’el Ware
Single Word Description: Rusted
Biggest Positive: Organizational Continuity. By now, most of you know my basketball sensibilities skew as old school as a Cliff Hagan hook shot, so the idea of a franchise having the same head coach for 17 seasons—and Spo has been with the organization a total of 28—and the same head of basketball operations for the same stretch, warms the prematurely aged cockles of my heart. Yet my old man preferences aside, there is something to be said for the fact that Miami feels like the elder dude that nobody wants to fight because they’ve seen some shit. Obviously, that sentiment comes from the top down, as anyone who is aware of Pat Riley’s personality knows he is definitely not the dude to trifle with. That being said, while the “Heat culture” bit gets tiresome at times, particularly with that masturbatory screed on their alternate court last season—just bring that phenomenal Miami Vice court back every year—but there is validity to the fact that Miami has an established way of doing things and either you buy in, or get out. The demands for toughness and next-man-up mentality that is ingrained into Erik Spoelstra’s coaching style, and Pat Riley’s front office decisions, have fostered an environment that is both demanding and productive. But just because you can extract the most from a situation doesn’t make it the most ideally productive. Blood from a stone is impressive, that is unless you just go for the artery. Miami is still a team that has to win in rock fights, and while they may be the most experienced at heaving boulders, I’m more interested in the tactical approach that wins through less exhaustive means of battle. That being said, the results have ultimately justified the means, and in truth, the way the organization functions may be reasonable cause for an argument that I am ranking the Heat too low. Though, the fact that they are consistently just above marginal during the regular season—Miami has averaged 44 regular season wins for the last ten seasons and won more than 50 games just once during that stretch (53 in ’22)—and getting longer in the tooth by the moment, ultimately places them here.
Biggest Negative: Age. This Heat team has some fun younger players in Jaquez Jr., Jović, and incoming rookie Kel’el Ware who are going to play substantial minutes, but the core of this group feels old. While Jimmy at age 34 was still very good last season, averaging 20.8 points, 5.3 boards, and 5.0 assists on 50/41/86 shooting, it’s apperant that he is now resorting to guile over strength more and more frequently on his drives and has lost some of his explosiveness. The combination of Alec Burks, Kevin Love, Josh Richardson, Terry Rozier, and Duncan Robinson have an average age of 32, and while you could convince me that two of the five won’t play a large role for this team on a night-to-night basis, somebody’s creaky knees are going to be called upon as the inevitable injuries pile up. That means that Miami will be relying on no fewer than 4 players aged 30 or older to be nightly contributors. As a 41-year-old man just hitting his prime—that is unless you want me to walk briskly, do a jumping jack, lift something off the ground, or tie my shoelaces—I am by no means being ageist, but with their rugged style of play those aging bodies are sure to wear down. Of course, for Miami, the biggest concern is typically a matter of being healthy come playoff time, but after Riley’s diatribe about valuing the regular season, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Heat get out to a good early start, only to see attrition as they begin to lose veterans to nagging injuries.
What’s Next: For a team that always seems poised to snatch up an available superstar, Miami’s next iteration may be dependent upon who asks out from their current situation over the coming six months. It felt as though Miami was poised to make a move for Donovan Mitchell, but with that situation seemingly stabilized for the moment, the next target is opaque—though Mitchell’s teammate, Darius Garland, could be an attractive option when he inevitably asks out. Miami’s constant looming threat as a destination seems more founded upon finding another trade option this year, as the potential free-agent crop next summer doesn’t exactly inspire flights of championship fancy—although, there are some players like Fred VanVleet, Julius Randle, and Naz Reid, who if they become available, feel like perfect fits in Miami. But, with Jimmy’s game in decline, and no rostered players ready to take over as the first option—sorry Bam-waggoneers, he’s awesome, but not cut out to be a team’s best offensive player—the Heat are nearing a crossroads as to how they want to progress with their aging core versus a group of younger players that are interesting, but lacking star potential. Really, the most informative piece to all of this will be how Miami looks early on, because if this group flounders out of the gate, Butler trade talks will likely get loud quickly. If they jump out to a great start, then Miami, with its collection of young talent and tradeable contracts, becomes potential buyers for players like Zach LaVine or Jerami Grant.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Over-commit to this group. It’s not in Pat Riley’s character composition to be hasty with anything besides stern end-of-the-season lectures, so I would be surprised if the Heat did anything in the next six months to sacrifice their flexibility; that is unless a superstar becomes disgruntled sooner. Still, if Miami starts strong, and Jimmy looks like Jimmy, there will be a lot of sentiments to make a move that gives this team a chance at another playoff run. However, we’ve probably seen the best we’re going to see from this group, and it’s time for Miami to turn the page on Butler by the end of this coming season if he decides to explore the market. Fortunately for Heat fans, if any executive has shown that he’s willing to cut ties with a franchise pillar, it’s Riley.
Is There Hope? Yes. I thought Pat Riley played this offseason smart by not giving Jimmy Butler a contract extension. While that means Butler could decline his player option and become a free agent next summer, Miami has likely gotten the best they’ll get from Jimmy. Considering the team made it to two NBA Finals, it’s far better than could have been expected. At his age, with a playing style that has always been predicated on intensity and physicality, in all likelihood, Jimmy’s game will go full Wile E. Coyote—off the cliff before anyone’s even looked down. All of that is to say that Pat Riley has once again done what he does best, standing firm in the face of a veteran for the sake of maintaining flexibility next summer. Miami has proven time and again to be a desired place for players, so when the inevitable star asks for a trade, the Heat, as always, stand at the ready.
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