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#16 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
Look, there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that San Antonio is the sixteenth-best team in the NBA this coming season, but with their cap situation and the best young player to enter the league since LeBron, there is also no reason to have anything but resounding optimism in South Texas. While I’m one of the few people not smashing the over on the Spurs' projected win total (35.5), this season is the last year that I think a Wemby-led team will be below 42 wins for a very long time.
#16 San Antonio Spurs
Record: 22-60 (26th); 14th in West; 101.8 Pace (3rd); 109.3 Offensive Rating (26th); 115.6 Defensive Rating (21st); -6.4 Net Rating (25th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $145,006,408
Cap Space: $-4,418,408
Current Roster: Harrison Barnes, Charles Bassey, Malaki Branham, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Sidy Cissoko, Zach Collins, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Sandro Mamulelashvili, Riley minix, Chris Paul, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama, Blake Wesley
Single Word Description: Ascendant
Biggest Positive: Chris Paul…nah, I’m just fucking with you. It’s of course Victor Wembanyama. After last season’s marvelous rookie campaign, there is absolutely no reason to believe that as long as the gods of limbs and feet don’t smite him, Wemby won’t be an all-time great player. Typically, that level of hyperbole after a rookie campaign is dangerous territory, as the league inevitably adjusts, a player’s development stalls, and plateaus are reached faster than expected. But with Wemby, all bets are off.
From an offensive standpoint, his ability to both catch and finish over anyone is a cheat code that allows for post entries and lobs to be viable options from pretty much any angle or height. Wemby’s exceptional length and great hands make throwing him a bad pass nearly impossible, despite the best efforts of the Spurs' perimeter players last season. To that end, the idea of Chris Paul now having Victor as a target is enough to give one goosebumps…at least for the 46 games they are likely to play together. The shooting, both in terms of selection and results, clearly got better as the season continued, which, considering all the other things he does on the floor, is a terrifying proposition for the league. In Wemby’s last 36 games—he played 71 in total—he shot 35.1% from three on 2.1 makes per game. In addition, over the course of the entire season, he finished a healthy 63.8% at the rim, a number that will only go up as he adds strength to his frame. He also shot 53.4% on twos despite having a pull-up frequency of 24.9%—meaning that even though he was third only to Julius Randle and Joel Embiid in points per game on those attempts, he was still attempt more pull-ups than is ideal. Still, the fact that at his height, he is already a three-level scorer who is just scratching the surface of his powers is crazy to think about when predicting an offensive ceiling.
Defensively, he’s basically Hakeem on statistical steroids and physical stilts. As a rookie, Wemby led the league in blocks (3.6), was sixth in rebounding (10.6), and 22nd in steals (1.4), all while still playing just a smidge under 30 minutes per game (29.7). Watching Wemby shut down the paint is an awesome spectacle, and it would not be surprising to see the league incorporate a “deterrent” stat, because Wemby’s presence sends offensive players into fits of second-guessing usually relegated to insecure 40-year-old men. There is little doubt that we are looking at a player who has the potential to win at least as many DPOYs as his fellow countryman Rudy Gobert (4). Considering the early start (he’s only 20) and the ways in which he can affect the entire flow of offense because of his multifaceted abilities to disrupt both the passing lanes and shooting angles, we’re looking at the league’s most dominant defensive force for at least the next decade.
Biggest Negative: Shooting. This is a group whose collective perimeter shooting was bad last year, ranking third from the bottom of the league at 34.7% from the three-point line. While the additions of Harrison Barnes (38.7% last season) and Chris Paul (37.1%) will help improve efficiency, those two combined for just 3.1 makes from distance per game last season. Outside of the new additions, the Spurs have only two other players on the roster that shot better than 35% from three last season (Vassell – 37.2%, Champagnie – 36.5%). Now, much like the .300 hitter in baseball, efficient shooters are less and less coveted, as long as the volume of makes justifies the number of attempts. But of the ten worst teams in the league last year in terms of three-point percentage, only the Orlando Magic at 35.2% (24th) had a record above .500. Chicks may dig the long ball, but everyone loves a winner. To only complicate matters, the Spurs' fourth overall pick, Stephon Castle, has not shot the ball well from distance at any recent level of competition—26.7% in his sole year at UCONN; 25% this summer—and teams will be challenging that element of his game from the onset. Surrounding Wemby with shooting allows for him to not only have more space to operate in the paint, but more room for him as a ballhandler to break down his man and distribute, as he has an advantage with his handle against any center in the league. For now, teams can sag and afford to crowd Wemby with little fear of his teammates making them pay.
What’s Next: To start, I would wager that Wemby wins Defensive Player of the Year this season. This past season, Wembanyama was the first rookie to lead the league in blocks since Manute Bol in ’86. He was also the first rookie to ever be named to an All-Defensive team, making the second team this past season. And again, like Bol, the Spurs center was the only other rookie to ever finish as the runner-up for the Defensive Player of the Year award. The rarity of these occurrences underscores just how special a defensive presence Wembanyama is. Even as this past season progressed, it became humorous to watch NBA players, men who by any other margin are huge humans, literally turn tail and abandon all thoughts of finishing at the basket once Wemby was positioned underneath. Or, the most delightful moment for your viewing pleasure: watching the fear that Wembanyama inspired as he trailed a player looking to get an easy breakaway finish. Seeing NBA’ers bail out on what are typically simple finishes felt reminiscent of a dog abandoning some ill-gotten piece of meat mid-stride in an effort to deflect their pursuing owner's attention. With his athleticism, reach, and incredible hands, Wemby has the potential to change the geometry of the floor defensively in a similar way to how Steph has offensively. What all this means for what’s next for the Spurs is likely a run of dominance founded upon elite defense and an unstoppable force in Wemby. Whether that means titles will remain to be seen, but multiple championships are an aspiration that can’t be too far-fetched for a generational talent. Of course, because of the depressing history of big men and injuries, these notions are predicated upon health. In Victor’s case, because of his heavy focus on flexibility and plyometrics, he moves and falls in a way that is far less concerning than, say, Porziņģis or Embiid, only furthering the basis for such profound excitement.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Feel too comfortable. I’m never in favor of rushing the process, but Victor Wembanyama is the type of player that could win the Spurs several titles. In the modern NBA, doing that means having the ability to reload and reshape around your superstar. Kobe had Shaq and then Pau. Duncan had Robinson, then Parker and Manu, and then Kawhi. Wade had Shaq, then LeBron and Chris Bosh. Steph had Klay and Dray, and then KD. Obviously, San Antonio understands the model well, so the sooner they can surround Wemby with as much talent as possible, the better. I’m not nearly as bullish on this Spurs team as many others seem to be, as I don’t buy Chris Paul’s health holding out long enough for him to have the type of impact that moves the needle enough for them to be in the 40-win range. That being said, with the additions of Paul, Barnes, and their exciting rookie, Castle, San Antonio surrounded Wemby with much better talent heading into next season. So as Wembanyama takes another huge leap forward, the Spurs will be a much more exciting group, but this season ultimately ends up being another development year for Victor, rather than the team vying for legitimacy in the West. That’s fine, but with a good cap situation and a player that will make an All-NBA team as soon as this coming season, it would be prudent for the Spurs to go hunting for another star to pair alongside Wemby as soon as possible.
Is There Hope?: That’s a no-brainer. Wembanyama will be the best player in the NBA within two or three seasons, and that may be doing a disservice to his growth potential. By next season’s end, he will likely be considered the league’s best defensive player. Additionally, his offensive game, which is already so impressive, will be phenomenal to watch grow as he deepens his understanding of how to leverage his incredible skill set. To me, this is the third-best situation in basketball going forward, as the Spurs landed yet another franchise big man who plays the game in a way that is also enticing to other star players. San Antonio also has all the flexibility in the world going forward. The sky is the limit for San Antonio, and with the 7’4 Wemby, they already have an advantage in reaching for it.
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