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#15 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
The Grizzlies are perfectly primed to make prognosticating know-it-alls like myself either look dumb or smart (at least that’s what we tell ourselves). There is a world where Memphis’ epically torturous injury luck turns and we get a run of relative health that allows this team to again show how damaging they can be, as we witnessed in the ’22 and ’23 regular seasons, where they averaged 53.5 wins. There is also a world where due to the nature of the players involved, the Grizzlies' injury luck is permanently downtrodden with perpetual DNPs. In truth, I feel more inclined to believe the latter; otherwise, this is a group that from a talent standpoint, may be a top-ten unit in the league.
#15 Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 27-55 (24th); 13th in West; 98.68 Pace (17th); 106.8 Offensive Rating (30th); 113.7 Defensive Rating (Tied-12th); -6.9 Net Rating (26th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $201,798,041 (7th)
Cap Space: $-61,210,041 (7Th)
Current Roster: Santi Aldama, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Mamadi Diakite, Zach Edey, G.G. Jackson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, John Konchar, Jake LaRavia, Ja Morant, Derrick Rose, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Wells, Vince Williams Jr.
Single Word Description: Conditional
Biggest Positive: Depth. This Grizzlies team’s only significant offseason move outside of the draft was dumping Ziaire Williams to Brooklyn for Mamadi Diakite, in a trade that was a salary dump. Memphis clearly felt they had seen enough of their underwhelming former 10th selection in the ’22 draft, as they were disinterested in extending him off his rookie deal. The otherwise mostly inactive summer—the Grizzlies also re-signed Luke Kennard on a one-year, $11 million deal—was due in large part to a cap situation that didn’t allow for much flexibility, as the Grizzlies have their entire young core already signed to extensions. However, it was also a reflection of a roster that has a ton of exciting young talent and a bevy of well-equipped role players. While many of last year’s more established players saw limited action this past season due to the biblical plague of injuries that head coach Taylor Hendricks was forced to endure and coach through, that same series of circumstances allowed players like G.G. Jackson, Jake LaRavia, Vince Williams Jr., and two-way player Scottie Pippen Jr. to develop and grow while getting far more playing time than expected going into the season.
Memphis now has a roster with great wing and guard depth, in addition to holding several players that could be assets come trade deadline, as it’s likely to be difficult for all of the Grizzlies to get the playing time they deserve. More importantly where the forest is concerned, this is a team full of injury-prone players, meaning the Grizzlies now have rostered insurance policies for the inevitable missed games that will occur throughout the season. Hendricks has also proven himself to be a versatile coach in terms of implementing a variety of lineups, so it’ll be a lot of fun to see what types of groupings he concocts with the diversity of skill sets that are on this roster.
Biggest Negative: Health. I hope that someone went full Kyrie on the Grizzlies locker room and smudged the living hell out of it. Poor Taylor Hendricks must have been running up and down his conscience trying to figure out who he had scorned to warrant the curse of the worst health luck in NBA history last year. The Grizzlies as a team missed a league-record 578 games due to injuries last season, resulting in Hendricks employing another league-record 51 different starting lineups. While Hendricks may have been ruing some past indiscretions, in truth, the injury luck was reflective of a roster chock-full of players notorious for missing time. Ja Morant has averaged 51 regular season appearances since entering the league five years ago, and with his style of play—and coming off an injury/suspension combo that saw him only appear in nine games last season—he feels like a constant concern. Last year’s new addition, Marcus Smart, has missed 20 or more games in a season five times in his 10 years in the league. Desmond Bane, who looked to have taken another huge leap at the beginning of last season before getting hurt, has missed 38% of Memphis’ contests over the last two years. Steven Adams—who has since been moved to greener, or redder as it were, pastures in a deal to Houston last year—missed all of last season after only playing 42 games the prior year. Brandon Clarke appeared in just six games last season and has appeared in an average of just 49 games per season over his five-year career. I could continue this down most of the top ten players on the roster, but I think you get the point. Of the 33 different players that saw the floor for Memphis last season—also an NBA record—only two players played over 55 games (Jaren Jackson Jr. – 66, Santi Aldama – 61), and just another three players played more than 50 games (John Konchar – 55, Vince Williams Jr. – 52, Ziaire Williams - 51).
If the Grizzlies are even reasonably healthy—though it must be said that any path to excellence must be driven with a healthy Ja at the wheel—this may be too low a ranking for them. But that "if" has become such an omnipresent caveat that until the Grizzlies can prove to be healthy through a playoff run, it now feels like they can’t be trusted to be considered a bigger threat.
What’s Next: The Grizzlies future is a conditional argument, as in, if they are healthy, then they are a potent unit. The addition of Zach Edey is potentially the perfect replacement for Steven Adams, as Edey rebounds, finishes around the rim with high efficiency, provides rim protection, and practices the dead art of setting real screens. On the defensive end, that combination pairs perfectly with Jaren Jackson Jr., allowing the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year to play more at power forward, where his roaming rim protection is perfectly suited, particularly as Edey can help compensate for Jackson’s woeful rebounding numbers. On the offensive end, Edey has the potential to pair nicely with Ja as a pick-and-roll partner that will allow Morant to get downhill in a hurry, as Edey is just a massive mountain of a man for a small defender to work around. But Edey is the only new piece to a team that was historically riddled by injuries, so if that remains the reality, the next step for Memphis may be stripping down some parts. If the health holds, Memphis has everything they need to be as deadly in the West as just about anyone. As a Bulls fan, I’m permanently pessimistic about Ja’s style of play impacting his health, but I very much hope I’m wrong, as Memphis has a group that could easily vie for the West over the next few seasons…if they can, well, you know.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Hold on for too long. This Memphis team is young and exciting. They’re also expensive and injury-prone. With the depth that this roster has and the fact that the West isn’t getting much easier anytime soon, the Grizzlies will have to really use this year to assess the honest, not ideal, viability of this group. I’m not saying there needs to be a rush to disassemble the whole thing were this to be another disappointing year, but the Grizzlies may be rapidly approaching a period where it’s just clear that this group can’t pull it together. When you have both the number of assets and the cap sheet that Memphis has—particularly in a small market—it’s prudent (and typical) to get out too early rather than too late. This situation could rapidly begin to feel like Atlanta, though the Grizzlies are a much better unit on paper than the Hawks ever were, where Memphis is quickly stuck with deflated assets and a star that is hard to win with. Unlike Trae Young, whose playing style alienates teammates, Ja’s troubles are less about how he gets along with others—well, at least on the court—as they are of the injury variety. Either way, being saddled with a star player that becomes an albatross is a very tricky place to navigate in a league that is driven by stars—just ask the Charlotte Hornets. And to be clear, I’m not saying that is the case with Ja, but being held captive by the potential of a player that can never get healthy is a type of death by a thousand cuts torture that no franchise wants to endure. (Again, the Bulls fan in me may be projecting here.) Time will tell, and if this group gets an average of 65 games out of its best players, along with the big (literally) addition of Zach Edey, I think the Grizzlies can actually be an absolute bear in the West. *hard wink*
Is There Hope?: Yes, but… The Grizzlies have to prove they can all stay on the floor together enough to show us a full version of themselves. The parallels with Derrick Rose and Ja Morant extend beyond their styles of play precipitating clenched-tooth joy from their respective admirers, as this Memphis team is beginning to feel like Rose's Bulls teams. That group was considered the strongest threat in the East to the Heat hegemony but could never seem to get all their pieces headed in the same direction at the same time, as injuries plagued that Chicago group into a woeful state of “what if?” If Memphis has another year of back-breaking injuries, the organization may have to start considering retooling their pieces in an effort to get a more reliable group of players. It’s too early to sound that alarm, but the bell stands ready to be struck as soon as the end of this coming season.
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How Memphis Grizzlies injuries resulted in NBA-record setting season (commercialappeal.com)