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#13 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
I tend to be the type of person who much prefers to be early to the party rather than late, so perhaps that mentality is informing how high I am on the Rockets going forward, but I think this bunch has a chance to be as good as any team in the league in about three years. That is going to require a lot of things going right, including a potentially tough choice as to who their franchise player is, but I am now a believer in the savvy and rugged mentality of the people in charge of this organization. Houston makes another jump is a top-8 team in the Western Conference this coming season.
#13 Houston Rockets
Record: 41-41 (19th); 11th in the West; 99.59 Pace (13th); 113.7 Offensive Rating (20th); 112.8 Defensive Rating (10th); 0.9 Net Rating (18th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $168,102,105 (24th)
Cap Space: $-27,514,025 (7th)
Current Roster: Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason, Jalen Green, Jeff Green, A.J. Griffin Jr., Nathaniel Hinto, Aaron Holiday, Jock Landale, Jermaine Samuels, Alperen Şengūn, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith, Jr., Jae’sean Tate, Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Cam Whitmore
Single Word Description: Precocious
Biggest Positive: Young Talent. Thinking about the Rockets' roster makes me giddy (and yes, I did intend to do that). This is a group of exciting young players who have as much collective potential as any team in the league, and considering what’s happening down in OKC and Orlando, I don’t make that statement lightly.
Reed Sheppard (20): His Summer League performance made me a convert. Sheppard already plays at an advanced level in terms of getting to his spots, anticipating the pass as a playmaker, and utilizing his hands to compensate for his lack of physicality. And we already knew the shooting was never going to be a question. The biggest issue is how his lack of physical stature (they list him at 6’3”, which apparently makes me 6’4”) plays itself out. But he looks to have the goods, and I would expect the rookie out of Kentucky to be the Rockets’ starting point guard by this time next year.
Alperen Şengūn (22): One of my favorite watches in the league. Three years in, he’s already an elite playmaker out of the high post, where he really understands how and when to attack, and is as adept as the league has to offer at getting his teammates the ball in perfect position to finish—Şengūn was second only to the Joker in points per game from the elbows and fourth in the league in assists functioning out of that spot. He also shows nice craft in the paint, where he uses his quick feet and hands, along with surprising strength, to finish over, under, and around larger players; though he’ll have to continue to work on his efficiency at the rim, where he shoots a respectable but not great 66.2%. The defense may never be elite, but he’s continuously improved on that end by using his quick hands and broad chest to insinuate himself into the actions in the paint.
Jabari Smith Jr. (21): Continues to be a player I believe in. There may not be a superstar in there, but he’s smart, malleable, and a tough and versatile defender. The looks with him at small-ball five last season were fun, and I hope the Rockets continue to play with that as part of a second unit that features the more athletic iteration of their roster. The big jump in three-point percentage—from 30.7% in ’23 to 36.3% in ’24—is encouraging, as the prevailing thought with Jabari entering the league was that at the very worst he would be a high-level three-and-d player. With his defensive versatility and much-improved stroke, he may already fall into that classification.
Amen Thompson (22): The shot is so ugly it should come with a parental advisory sticker: “not suitable for child viewing,” but Thompson is the type of freak athlete that can affect a game without ever taking a shot or dribbling the ball—which is a good thing since both are the worst parts of his game as currently constituted. The rookie’s rebounding (9.2 per game in 17 games) once Şengūn went down was a key component to Houston going on their run. Particularly on the offensive boards, as the Rockets really liked to optimize Thompson’s fast-twitch virtuosity into easy dunks and chase down rebounds by putting him in the dunker’s spot—Thompson was third in the league with 4.0 offensive rebounds per game once he was inserted into the starting lineup after Şengūn’s season-ending ankle injury. But it’s when he’s in the open floor, bounding from one end to the other so quickly that he outpaces the pack, that Thompson is at his most athletically exciting.
Jalen Green (22): Green may have had the glow-up of the spring, as perhaps no player did a better job of recalibrating expectations than the Rockets’ third-year guard. From Feb. 29th through the end of the season, Green averaged 24.5 points and was particularly dangerous during a 15-game stretch spanning the month of March, in which the Rockets went 13 and 2, as Green averaged 29.2 points on 48.8% from the floor and a ridiculous 42.2% from distance on 10.3 attempts per game. Those types of runs are usually reserved for the game’s elite players (and Jeremy Lin), leaving many wondering whether Green’s skill was finally meeting the level of his talent. To me, the difficulty of the shot diet still gives me concerns, but if he is even 80% of that player, the league is in trouble.
Cam Whitmore (20): I’m not going to lie, Whitmore interests me the least of this group, but that may be more a reflection of the overall talent of his teammates than the player himself. Whitmore’s 12.3 points per game last year was sixth among all rookies, despite being one of only three players in the top 20 in rookie scoring to play less than 20 minutes per game (18.7). The athleticism and strength when attacking the rim is captivating, and the perimeter shooting (35.9% from distance) is more than fine. I’m just not sure that I see a player offensively who particularly gets along well with others (0.7 assists per game). That being said, after watching them together in summer league, Cam is going to get more than his fair share of buckets served on a platter playing alongside Reed Sheppard with the second unit.
Biggest Negative: Whose team is this anyway? The injury to Alperen Şengūn may prove to be either the best or worst thing to happen to this franchise going forward. On the one hand, Houston got a long look at how freakishly athletic a roster of young talent they have, as they opened up their style of play and really pushed teams without Şengūn slowing the pace and clogging the lane. On the other, the franchise seemed to be all but Şengūn’s, as he was playing at an All-Star level before getting hurt (21.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 5.0 apg), only to go down and have the Rockets win nine straight after his injury. This led many to speculate that perhaps Houston was better off going the athletic route and dealing Şengūn this summer. Now, heading into the ’25 season, with aspirations of making the playoffs, Houston has to contend with the questions of perception as to who is the team’s offensive focal point and franchise pillar. Keeping egos in check and all the mouths fed will be a difficult challenge for Coach Udoka to manage during a season that will answer those questions.
What’s Next: Roster consolidation. Houston is in an enviable position in many ways, as six of their top 10 players are on rookie deals. With all six players aged 22 or younger! That’s great when looking at their cap heading into this coming season, but in the very near future, Houston is going to have to make some tough decisions about who to keep and who to move. That tough act of roster triage starts with Green and Şengūn both vying for extensions. And again, who wouldn’t want the problem of potentially having hit on two stars in a single draft? However, it’s a tightrope that Houston has to walk in terms of egos and dollars when they finally start extending their rookie players. In the court of public opinion, the player extended first will be assumed to have top billing on the Houston marquee. That perhaps isn’t fair to the Rockets’ process going forward, but it may very well create a circumstance where they have to choose between one of the two players. It’s a mindset that Rockets GM Rafael Stone will become well-acquainted with, as Houston has at least eleven players vying for significant rotation minutes (VanVleet, Brooks, Adams, Green, Sheppard, Smith Jr., Thompson, Şengūn, Eason, Whitmore, and Landale) along with solid veterans in Jeff Green and Aaron Holiday. In terms of assets, I’m sure Stone feels you can’t have too much of a good thing, but with this many young players fighting to establish themselves and their worth, there has to be concern about locker room dynamics.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Go all in this season. I know Coach Udoka has made it very clear that he intends to make the playoffs this coming year, and with just a three to four-win improvement over last season, that may very well be possible. Still, after all the conversation about Houston coveting Kevin Durant this offseason, and potentially still holding out hope for him, it would be folly for the Rockets to think that the addition of KD—or really any star player—would be the fuel that could propel these Rockets into the championship stratosphere. There is no accelerant in the world that can rush the process of experience where the postseason is concerned. Ask Minnesota. With that imperative in mind, Houston should not make any move that leverages future development for current results. This is a group that has a chance to emulate the process of their stately neighbors, Oklahoma City: Let the young players develop their games during the regular season, continuing to build cohesion, but also informing the front office about where the liabilities exist in the group. Earn your stripes in the playoffs, and then leverage some of the young talent that won’t fit both within the style and under the apron—a la jettisoning Josh Giddey—and round out your roster once you have a more comprehensive idea about who these guys really are as a unit. I’m sure for a coach like Udoka, who has known nothing but accelerated success in his two years as a head coach—having led the Celtics to the NBA Finals before losing in six to the Warriors, and then jumping the line and getting this Houston group to a .500 record ahead of schedule last year—it’s likely difficult to convey the importance of playing the long game. However, if they are patient with their process, in terms of developing talent and tradeable assets, Houston should be vying with Orlando for the next big thing come a year or two from now.
Is There Hope?: Seeing as I went way too long outlining my adoration for their young players, I think you already have a sense of the answer here—hell yes! And those feelings don’t even include the wealth of draft assets that the Rockets have going forward thanks to the James Harden trade. It’s fitting that for a team named the Rockets, the sky is the limit.
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