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#11 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
Cleveland is a hard team to rank, as there is as good a chance that this whole thing falls off the rails as there is that they become a viable threat next season. Yet, even if the Cavs are a disappointment, they would still have some of the most attractive trade assets on the market. It’s because of that flexibility, along with them making the playoffs the last two seasons and averaging 48 wins over the last three, that I have the Cavs this high. The top-end talent is undeniable, and while the individual parts may still prove greater than the sum, there are just too many good basketball players on this roster to be too down, both as a team for right now and in projecting what they may choose to reshape themselves into.
#11 Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 48-34 (Tied-8th); 4th in the East; 97.62 Pace (24th); 114.7 Offensive Rating (16th); 112.1 Defensive Rating (7th); 2.5 Net Rating (12th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $189,406,644 (13th)
Cap Space: $-48,818,644 (17th)
Current Roster: Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Ty Jerome, Caris LeVert, Sam Merrill, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Georges Niang, Craig Porter Jr., Max Strus, Jaylon Tyson, Dean Wade
Single Word Description: Redundant
Biggest Positive: Top-End Talent
The Cavaliers be able to challenge Boston for the most talented top four in the NBA. Despite all the talk about how they looked as a unit, these are still the averages of Mitchell, Mobley, Garland, and Allen last season:
Mitchell: 26.6 ppg, 6.1 apg, 5.1 rpg, 46.2% FG, 36.8% 3PT
Garland: 18.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, 2.7 rpg, 44.6% FG, 37.1% 3PT
Mobley: 15.7 ppg, 3.2 apg, 9.4 rpg, 58.0% FG, 1.6 bpg
Allen: 16.5 ppg, 2.7 apg, 10.5 rpg, 63.4% FG, 1.3 bpg
These are impressive numbers across the board, made even made more so by the fact that the oldest player in the group is Donovan Mitchell, who will turn just 28 in September. That may very well mean we have yet to see the best basketball from any one of these players. The combination of youth and having every player under contract for at least the next three seasons means Cleveland could be set up to have one of the best cores for a while. The real benefit is that even if the four prove incapable of playing well enough together, the value any of them would fetch in a trade is significant.
Biggest Negative: Positional Overlap
The Cavaliers have four dynamic talents on their roster, unfortunately, they only play two positions. While Donovan Mitchell may be listed as a shooting guard, for all intents and purposes, he’s a point guard. Mitchell is at his most effective and comfortable attacking off the dribble. The same is true for Darius Garland, and despite both players being effective catch-and-shoot threats, there is a marginalization of what each player does best when the other is on the ball. If they can manage to find more synergy, instead of it feeling like "your turn, my turn" when they are on the floor together, then there is still some [potent untapped offensive potential. Still, the lack of size defensively (Garland is just 6’1" and Mitchell is 6’3") when the two are on the floor together will remain an issue unless Garland can hold up better when teams hunt him defensively.
In the case of Mobley and Allen, both players have made significant strides in developing their games outside of the paint, but it’s clear that each is most comfortable playing inside. Mobley’s three-point shooting is the much-discussed key to the two players finding a more harmonious playing style. He proved himself capable enough (37.3% from three last season), though not as willing (1.5 attempts per contest) as the Cavs need him to be in order to cause defenses to honor him out there. If he can finally become a threat from three, or really just show himself more willing to take shots from anywhere on the perimeter (79.1% of his field goal attempts last season were from 10 feet or less), then perhaps the two can find a more comfortable way to coexist.
What’s Next: Trades
I don’t think anything short of a deep playoff run keeps this roster together for another year. But with the East being as strong as it has been in decades, that feels unlikely for this Cavaliers group. This means there will be some movement either at the trade deadline or after next season. I expect Allen and Garland to be the most likely to get dealt, and the Cavs should have plenty of suitors for either.
In Allen’s case, he has become a vastly underrated player, particularly with how well he’s adapted his game playing from the elbows, where he was sixth in the league in touches per game at 6.1 last season and shot an impressive 50% from 10-16 feet. But one the biggest evolutions of Allen’s game has been his ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the basket, where he remains one of the league’s best finishers, shooting 67.2% at the rim. Since his rookie season, Allen has increased his field goal attempts following putting the ball on the floor from 19.5% his rookie year to 30.5% last season. This added versatility, along with already being one of the league’s best rebounders (his 10.5 boards per game last season were good for 11th in the league) and most efficient players (he was 4th in the league at 63.4% FG), makes him a pretty universally attractive player. Allen is also under team control for the next three seasons after signing a three-year, $91 million extension this offseason. A deal that means he becomes available to trade four days before the February 6th deadline. Even at a somewhat positionally pricey $30 million a year, Allen will likely be an extremely attractive trade piece if the Cavaliers decide they’ve had enough of the looks with Mobley at the four—Mobley also signed an extension this summer, for five years that could be worth as much as $269 million. Making him unavailable to deal until next July.
In Garland’s case, the fifth-year point guard’s struggles last season have been well-documented, but also overblown. While the 44.6% from the field isn’t ideal, and was the second-worst of his career, Garland was clearly gun-shy finishing at the rim after coming back from his fractured jaw. Garland shot just 43% from the floor following the injury, but 47% prior to it. A big part of the change was Garland being more reluctant to drive. Here’s a look at what Garland’s shooting looked like from 10 feet or less before and after the injury:
Prior: 45.9% frequency, 7.3 attempts per game, 53.7% FG
After: 33% frequency, 4.7 attempts per game, 49.1% FG
Without the distraction of protecting his face, I think Garland will have a bounce-back year next season. A healthy Garland is one of the game’s more dynamic point guards and the type of playmaker that most of the league would love to have if Cleveland finally decides to really shop him.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Let This Run On Too Long
The Cavaliers have made the playoffs the last two years, but I’m not sure they have ever felt like a real threat in the Eastern Conference. Yes, injuries depleted the group by the time they faced Boston in the second round this past postseason, but this Cavs team never looked at its best as a complete group at any point during last year anyways. Cleveland went a league-best 22-4 from December 16th to February 10th, a stellar stretch of play that began the game after Garland went down with his jaw injury and Evan Mobley missed most of after being out from December 6th to January 29th following knee surgery. Last season, in 765 possessions with their healthy starting lineup of Garland, Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, and Max Strus, the Cavs were only +2.3, which was just the seventh-best plus/minus of any five-player grouping on their roster—none of the others included more than two of Cavs top four players on the floor together. Meanwhile, their second-most-utilized group—Mitchell, Strus, Okoro, Wade, and Allen, the group that predominantly played during the winning streak—was +20.7 in 484 possessions. If Cleveland struggles out of the gate again with their primary lineup, it’s time to decide who’s staying and who’s leaving. But they should do so before injuries or regression lower any player’s value. Unless the playoff results change next season, Cleveland has to start breaking apart their pieces. Particularly considering the injury-prone nature of some of the players, it would be wise to avoid what happened in Chicago with Zach LaVine.
Is There Hope?: Either Way, Yes.
The Cavaliers are in a good position going forward, even if I don’t totally buy into what they are now. They have so many different ways the team can go and still be in a positive position for the future. I don’t expect the roster to look the same at the top by this time next season, but a trade of any of their top four players should bring in a nice haul of assets that allows them to retool on the fly. And if I’m wrong, and the Cavs are a threat next season, then they are set to contend for the next several years.
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