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#10 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
The Bucks may be long in the tooth and short in assets, but as long as they have one of the league’s five best players, they have to be considered a threat. Milwaukee has been above .500 for an impressive eight straight seasons, averaging 51 wins over that time, and thanks to some savvy offseason moves, I expect them to continue that run. They are a notch below the East’s best teams in my book, but there is a world where a full offseason of playing together and being healthy at the right times combines to return the Bucks to being a dangerous foe come in the postseason. I don’t love what this group looks like a few years from now, but it’s unfair to Giannis and the collection of proven veterans to write them off until shown otherwise. We’ll see if Doc Rivers is the right coach for the job, and if not, maybe this becomes a messy situation, but there’s just too much of a track record here to disregard.
#10 Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 49-33 (Tied-8th); 3rd in the East; 100.51 Pace (8th); 117.6 Offensive Rating (6th); 115.0 Defensive Rating (19th); 2.6 Net Rating (11th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $208,415,050 (3rd)
Cap Space: $-67,827,050 (28th)
Current Roster: Giannis Antetokounmpo, MarJon Beauchamp, Pat Connaughton, A.J. Green, Andre Jackson Jr., A.J. Johnson, Damian Lillard, Chris Livingston, Brook Lopex, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Tyler Smith, Gary Trent Jr., Delon Wright
Single Word Description: Aged
Biggest Positive: Clever Offseason
I was thoroughly impressed by Milwaukee’s ability to add much-needed depth despite being one of the league’s most expensive rosters. The Bucks were able to sign Taurean Prince for 1-year, $2,988,550, as well as Delon Wright (1-year, $3,003,427) and Gary Trent Jr. (1-year, $2,613,120) for their minimum based on service time in the league. History tells us that one of those three will likely underproduce, but I like these moves and think each one will have a positive impact for Milwaukee at some point during the season. This is a win-now team making smart win-now decisions.
Taurean Prince: He was overleveraged as a starter last season but still shot 39.6% from distance on 1.8 makes per game. Prince’s combination of perimeter shooting and versatile defense is exactly what the Bucks need off their bench. Prince also provides reasonable insurance against games missed by Khris Middleton.
Delon Wright: His best days may be behind him, but Wright proved last year that he is still an impact defender on the perimeter, averaging 1.4 steals per game in just 20.4 minutes after being signed by Miami late last season, following a buyout from the Wizards. Milwaukee’s biggest liability defensively was perimeter pressure from the guard spots; Wright should go a long way in helping with that, particularly with his ability to play both guard positions.
Gary Trent Jr.: Sometimes the basketball gods smile upon you. Trent Jr. is definitely a one-season rental. The sixth-year guard became a Buck with the intent of increasing his value in a starting role. If he can do so, and bounce back from this season, he hopes to try his hand once again at free agency after missing out on the deal he and his people were hoping for this summer. For the Bucks, who lost Malik Beasley to Detroit after having him for a similar rental, Trent Jr. is an upgrade at shooting guard, as he is both a more complete scorer and a better defender.
Biggest Negative: Age and Health
This Bucks roster is old, with a coach notorious for not playing younger players. That feels like a potentially volatile combination. Eight of the Bucks’ presumed top-10 players (Lopez – 36, Lillard – 35, Middleton – 33, Connaughton – 31, Wright – 32, Prince – 30, Antetokounmpo – 29, Portis – 29) will be 30 or older by season’s end. It would benefit Coach Doc Rivers to try to infuse some athleticism into the lineup by playing Andre Jackson Jr., though he seemed stereotypically reluctant to do so last season, as the rookie averaged just 10 minutes per game—good for 53rd among all rookies. In terms of health, Middleton has averaged just 57 games a season for the last five years, and following separate surgeries on both of his ankles this summer, it would be fair to assume that trend of him missing games will continue. Lillard managed to play 73 games last season—his most since 2019 (80), but he was hurt when Milwaukee needed him most down the stretch. The same could be said for Giannis, who has now been injured the last two postseasons, only playing three games in the last two playoffs combined. Perhaps injury luck levels out, and the Bucks are ready as a healthy whole come the playoffs for the first time since winning the title in ’21.
What’s Next: Probably Much of the Same
The Bucks may be the most win-now team left in the rankings. While the Sixers have more to prove, they have a young star in Tyrese Maxey that allows them to at least briefly peer out beyond the immediate horizon. The Bucks on the other hand, are a veteran roster beset with expensive contracts and bereft of tradeable assets besides Brook Lopez. Who they have a tough decisions to make on, as he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer. For now, Bucks’ general manager Jon Horst indicated that Lopez will play out the year for Milwaukee. Beyond the coming season, it makes sense for both team and player for Lopez to stay, as his rim protection allows Giannis to play more of a roamer role, where he wreaks his best havoc defensively (and hides some of his flaws). Lopez is also allowed to minimize physical wear and tear on the offensive end as a stretch-five—his 5.1 threes per contest were the fifth most of any center in the league last season, but that 53.1% of his total attempts came from behind the arc far outpaced any other starting center in the league. Short of a decision on Lopez, the Bucks lack much flexibility to make a deal. So as long as Giannis stays, I wouldn’t expect much deviation from the recent course of nibbling on the edges of free agency.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Continue to Avoid the Goddamned Pick-and-Roll
There are few things more maddening to watch over the last decade of NBA basketball than Giannis’ refusal to be a part of a functional two-man game. The man is one of the most athletically gifted specimens to ever grace a basketball floor, equal parts power and grace. Strong as an ox and able to elevate over and through anyone standing in his way. So why in the seven hells he refuses to use that bevy of gifts in a simple pick-and-roll is beyond me (and I would assume his six coaches as well). Particularly now that he’s been paired with a PnR specialist like Damian Lillard. Antetokounmpo was the screener in the pick-and-roll a measly 7.2% of the time last year, good for 167th in the NBA, ranked right between Bol Bol and Oshae Brissett. This is despite him scoring on 64.3% of those actions. Now, Giannis’s camp would argue that he’s protecting his body from the abuse of absorbing contact as a screener, which would be just fine if the crux of his game wasn’t him dropping his head and careening off of every body he can find within 10 feet of the basket. But even if we were to entertain that specious argument, Giannis refuses to engage in the pick-and-roll as a ballhandler as well, where an inverted PnR—a la Golden State—would be a phenomenal opportunity to get offset matchups that either Dame or Giannis could exploit after teams switch. As the ballhandler, Giannis utilized the pick-and-roll just 12.1% of the time, good for 191st in the league, right in between PnR specialists like Norman Powell and Ousmane Dieng (*cue heavy eyeroll*) And this is with him being second in the entire league in usage last season at 32.0% (Doncic – 35.5%). This is all despite Giannis having the fifth highest scoring frequency (57.7%) in those actions of anyone in the league last season! Look, I get the whole “old dog, new tricks” crap, but there is no justifiable argument to be made against Giannis’ continued unwillingness to play the two-man game. With the mileage he already puts on his body, this is an opportune way for him to ease the workload a bit, while still being directly involved in the offensive actions.
Is There Hope?: For Now, Yes
The bottom feels like it’s going to fall out sooner rather than later, but unless Giannis asks to be dealt (would that surprise anyone?), the Bucks have an equalizer that makes them as dangerous as just about anyone. I’m not sure I see the path to more than two more seasons of being viable in the East, but until that attrition comes to fruition, Milwaukee gets the benefit of the doubt.
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