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#12 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
Evaluating the Pelicans is a tricky proposition that requires weighing both the best and worst-case scenarios without feeling like much exists in between. They are like the anti-Oreo, the only parts that matter exist on the margins. By that, I mean if this team can somehow manage to cobble together a reasonable facsimile of center play out of their rookie Yves Missi, the veteran journeyman Daniel Theis, and the occasional appearance by Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, then as long as Zion’s health can hold, the Pelicans are a team that came one victory shy of 50 wins last season and should be vying for a similar record this coming year. But if that golem at center doesn’t hold up, or if Zion’s legs don’t either, the whole house of cards will likely fall in upon itself. I know that seems bleak considering where I have them ranked, but this is also a team that has averaged nearly 46 wins over the last two seasons and has a core of young and very talented players.
#12 New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 49-33 (Tied-8th); 8th in the West; 98.70 Pace (16th); 116.5 Offensive Rating (11th); 111.9 Defensive Rating (6th); 4.6 Net Rating (6th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $187,107,520 (14th)
Cap Space: $-46,519,520 (17th)
Current Roster: Jose Alvarado, Jordan Hawkins, Bradnon Ingram, Herb Jones, Karlo Matkovic, C.J> McCollum, Yves Missi, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Antonio Reeves, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Matt Ryan, Daniel Thies, Zion Williamson
Single Word Description: Undersized
Biggest Positive: Trey Murphy III.
Look, if the annual “Zion’s in the best shape of his life” images hold true this time, and it reflects a longstanding commitment to reshaping his body—and in fairness to Zion, he seemed to get the point and really got into much better shape throughout the course of last season—then the answer here is, of course, him. But until we have been overburdened by evidence that Williamson can stay healthy long enough to have an impact in the postseason, I’m more interested in what this season holds for Trey Murphy III. After missing the first 19 games of the season following a meniscus tear, Murphy took some time to assert himself offensively and only really began to stretch the limits of his powers later in the year. But as the season wore on, the third-year wingman became more assertive, much to the benefit of the Pelicans. From February 27 to the end of the year, Murphy averaged 18.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, while shooting 40.3% from distance on 3.7 makes per contest, good for sixth in the entire league over that stretch. Murphy was also one of just 14 players in the league to average three or more threes per game, 0.5 steals, and 0.5 blocks, while shooting greater than 38% from distance. The other players on that list are the crème de la crème of shooters and scorers in the NBA. And Murphy isn’t just the youngest player in the group, but only Paul George could be considered a better defender, and that may be a legitimate argument at this point in George’s career.
While Murphy’s game is perfectly complementary because of his ability to score as a catch-and-shoot player or as a cutter—where he has been known to unleash some nasty finishes—with his combination of length and athleticism, the thought is that there is room to expand his driving game and allow Murphy to attack more off the dribble. Much of this is why the Pelicans seem willing (and thus far unable) to deal Brandon Ingram. Both players are in line for a hefty raise, but with Murphy being the less expensive and younger of the two, not to mention the more malleable fit offensively, it makes little sense (and too many cents) for New Orleans to invest in two players who ultimately have a lot of overlap positionally. Murphy is a player still on the rise, and I think this season we finally get to see the most actualized version of his game.
Biggest Negative: Playmaking.
New Orleans averaged a reasonable 27 assists per game as a team last season, good for 13th in the league. However, their best distributor, Brandon Ingram, was just 31st in the league at 5.6 assists per game. With Zion Williamson (5.0), C.J. McCollum (4.6), and Ingram, the Pelicans have some decent distributors as secondary playmakers, but each of them tends to only make plays for others after a lengthy process of breaking down their man off the dribble. A style of play that works well with the Pelicans’ collection of shooters but doesn’t exactly cater to a free-flowing and complex style of offense, making New Orleans very predictable in the halfcourt. The addition of Dejounte Murray (6.4) this summer merely gives the Pelicans another player who is most comfortable breaking down his defender and then dishing, rather than someone preternaturally disposed to looking for his teammates as the first option. This now sets up a situation where several players need the ball to function at their best, and I’m just not sure how that offense can be optimized as currently constructed. This lack of enough balls to go around only adds to the functional need to trade Ingram, who has really improved as a shooter during his time with the Pelicans but is always most comfortable on-ball. The problem is that Ingram doesn’t play a universally adaptable style and remains unsigned, meaning any suitors would likely be looking for a Pascal Siakam-esque implicit understanding that Ingram will re-sign if traded for.
What’s Next: Trading Brandon Ingram.
With the lack of an extension glaring and a cap sheet that is getting pricey fast, the Pelicans really have little recourse here. Ingram should have more value around the league, but obviously, the lack of a contract, along with his injury history, goes a long way in preventing more teams from trying to nab the one-time All-Star (’20). Still, in his four years in New Orleans, Ingram has averaged 23.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists on 47.2% from the floor and 37.2% from distance. Those numbers reflect a player who is suffering a bit from a perception issue, as he can still be a team’s second-best player. New Orleans has to be hoping that Ingram can stay healthy early on in the season and make himself an attractive add for a team that has playoff aspirations—again, much like what happened in Indiana. If they can manage that type of deal, then it’s a smart play. However, it’s a rough bet, as there is a world where Ingram gets to unrestricted free agency next summer and walks for nothing. That doesn’t kill the Pelicans, as it feels pretty apparent that Ingram isn’t in their long-term plans anyway, but it would be a shame to get nothing for such a talented player.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Stand pat at the center position.
I really like Yves Missi as a long-term developmental piece at the position, but he is nowhere near ready to assume the role of starting center, and while Daniel Theis is serviceable, he is nothing more than a backup. The thought that Zion can assume the role seems to be ill-conceived, at least in terms of it being a sustainable look. Williamson is just too poor a rebounder for a big man—he averaged a career-low 5.8 rebounds per game last year—and has never been the shot-blocking presence we saw in his one year at Duke—0.6 blocks per game for his career. While New Orleans managed to rebound at a reasonable rate last season, averaging 44.0 (13th) boards per game, with the departure of Jonas Valančiūnas (8.8) to free agency, and the trades of Larry Nance Jr. (5.0) and Dyson Daniels (3.9) in the Murray deal, New Orleans lost three of its top seven rebounders and 40% of their total rebounds from last season. The Pelicans now don’t have a single player on the roster who averaged more than Williamson’s 5.8 boards per game, which was good for 74th in the league last season.
The lack of rim protection may be less of a concern, as the Pelicans were just 22nd in the league with only 4.6 blocks per game last season and still one of the NBA’s best defenses. The New Orleans scheme is far more reliant on the perimeter pressure that Herb Jones, Murphy, and Jose Alvarado provide, meaning that they don’t need elite rim protection. However, while Valančiūnas has never been much of a shot-blocker, he is a huge presence that still acts as a deterrent for drives that the Pelicans just no longer have on the roster. Perhaps their ability to squeeze teams with their length on the wings can prove to be enough, and it sure as hell doesn’t hurt to have two of the best wing defenders in the league in Jones and Murphy, but the model seems an unsustainable one once the postseason arrives and interior play becomes so much more vital in the halfcourt.
Is There Hope?: Yes.
Despite the wealth of glaring questions facing this organization over the coming season, New Orleans is still a team equipped with a superstar-level player, multiple star-level complements, a system of play defensively that differentiates them from other teams, a coach in Willie Green who I believe in, and a ton of assets that they can use to further reimagine the roster around Zion. I’m not super-high on them this coming season, though I still have them in the top 10 in the Western Conference, but I very much believe that they can still build something with a lot of long-term potential.
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