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#9 in the LBB end of the season team rankings...
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When it comes to the Sixers, it’s not just that I’m much lower on them than most seem to be, it’s that I may actually be outright pessimistic. Philadelphia is currently fourth in Vegas to win the championship, and while bookmakers have their own reasons for setting odds, that still underscores an obscene amount of optimism directed at the Sixers. While I recognize the talent and how desirable a fit their best players should be—they could very well end-up the best trio in the league, which is why they are ranked this high—it’s a lot of new pieces in a situation that has been as messy and underwhelming as a Gino’s cheesesteak with Whiz (it’s all about Pat’s and provolone—come at me). The problem is, much like their superstar, I don’t trust what I’m going to get from this Philadelphia team. The Sixers functioning optimally are a better situation than ninth. The Sixers functioning as they have over the last two years are worse.
#9 Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 47-35 (Tied-12th); 7th in the East; 98.17 Pace (18th); 116.2 Offensive Rating (14th); 113.0 Defensive Rating (11th); 3.1 Net Rating (9th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $181,511,437 (16th)
Cap Space: $-40,923,437 (15th)
Current Roster: Adem Bona, Ricky Council IV, Andre Drummond, Joel Embiid, Paul George, Eric Gordon, Reggie Jackson, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, K.J. Martin, Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, Judah Mintz, Kelly Oubre Jr. , Guerschon Yabusele
Single Word Description: Suspect
Biggest Positive: Tyrese Maxey
The league’s reigning Most Improved Player took the kind of leap this past season that is the stuff of superstars. One of the purest joys of watching basketball is seeing the process of a player understanding what they can and can’t do on the floor and using that knowledge to expand their game. For Maxey, the way he has learned to leverage his blazing speed, becoming more than just a blur in the halfcourt or a handful in the pick-and-roll, shows a player who works relentlessly to improve himself. Perhaps no one in the league is better at stopping at full speed on the dribble and rising directly into an on-balance shot than Maxey. Really, the only other players in his class where that particular type of body control is concerned are Steph, Donovan Mitchell, and Luka, with the latter being the best in the league at leveraging pace but the least dynamic of the four in terms of rapidly throttling down from a sprint—simply because he can’t get up to those speeds. (You could argue that Dame still belongs in this conversation, but I need to see that last year’s diminished burst was more about conditioning issues than him having lost a step.) This skill has made Maxey a nightmare to guard, as defenders are constantly caught off-balance. The added diversity in his offense has made him one of the more dynamic three-level scorers in the league, an attribute rarely assigned to small lead guards (Maxey is listed at 6’2, but that may be generous).
To really punctuate the leap that Maxey took, here’s a look at the change in his numbers from ’23 to ’24:
2023: 20.3 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.9 rpg, 0.8 spg, 48.1% FG, 43.4% 3PT
2024: 25.9 ppg, 6.2 apg, 3.7 rpg, 1.0 spg, 45.0% FG, 37.3% 3PT
Maxey became one of only eight players in NBA history to average at least 25 points, 6 assists, and 1 steal while shooting 45% or better from the field and 37% or better from distance. When you add in the three three-pointers he made per contest, it’s just Maxey, Steph, Luka, and Dame on the list. That’s some haughty company for a player taken just 21st in the 2020 draft. The drop in shooting percentages is the only minor critique here, but considering the increase in volume (his attempts per game rose from 15.2 to 20.3, including a jump from 6.2 to 8.1 three-pointers), and the fact that he played much of the season with teams running everything at him due to Embiid being out so much of last year, these are incredible numbers for a fourth-year player.
Yet, Maxey’s best traits may revolve around his demeanor. He’s perhaps the most well-liked player this side of Steph. Teammates love him, the organization raves about him, but more importantly, so do the fans in Philadelphia. While fans in Philly are mostly known for their irrational ire, they also adore the hardest when they are freshly enthralled, and Maxey is getting love bombed by Sixers faithful right now. Most importantly though in terms of his perception, for a Philadelphia fanbase that has had to contend with a player in Joel Embiid who is as notorious for postseason disappearances as he is for his need for attention, Maxey has proven that the moment isn’t too big for him. Last year, in their first round series against the Knicks, Maxey averaged 29.8 points per game while playing a Josh Hart-esque 44.5 minutes per contest. This includes a Game 5 performance for the ages where Maxey scored 46 points, including a flurry of buckets at the end of the fourth quarter to force an improbable overtime in a huge Sixers win in the Garden. While the team remains Embiid’s for now, there is a world where at some time in the near future more Embiid failure becomes the proverbial last straw, and the Sixers and Joel might benefit from parting ways. Were that to happen, Philadelphia can feel good knowing that in Maxey, they have a budding superstar who is as desirable a teammate as any in the league.
Biggest Negative: Joel Embiid
Let me preface this by acknowledging the absurdity of naming one of the league’s top-15 players (yes, I know most people have him in the top 5, but not I) as a negative, but the reality is that the Joel Embiid situation has become such a self-reinforcing mess that anything short of an Eastern Conference Finals appearance will be viewed as an abject failure. That may seem unfair for a team that has eight new players on its 15-man roster, but between the lofty expectations that come with the signing of Paul George, the past playoff failures of Joel Embiid, and the outspoken center’s willful desire to put himself in the crosshairs of every critic this side of South Street, the Sixers may be the most "put up or shut up" team in the NBA this year. If Philadelphia fails to perform in the playoffs again, a shit storm looms on the horizon, with Embiid at the eye of the maelstrom.
We can have any conversation you like about injury luck, but the reality is that Embiid’s inability to remain healthy, and that he is physically gassed at the end of games come the postseason, have to be baked into any evaluation of who he is as a player at this point. The fact that he has never played in more than 12 playoff games in a single postseason, or made it past the second round, and shoots just 45.9% in his playoff career—his stats actually decline across the board come the playoffs—is undeniable. Embiid is a Wilt-level talent with the same maddening ability to both dominate and disappoint. And really, that comparison is unfair to Wilt, who appeared in six Finals, whereas Embiid hasn’t made it to even the Conference Finals yet. But that’s a statement rooted in the deep admiration I have for what Embiid is capable of on the basketball court when he is performing at his best. However, that’s the problem, between his injury history, and him clamming up come playoff time, his best is not always the performance you’re sure to get in the moments you may need it the most. This means that the Sixers are stuck in the somewhat unenviable position of having one of the league’s most talented players, yet one of its most underwhelming high-leverage performers. Embiid is a singular force, but ultimately, the value of a player is measured by their ability to win games at the highest level, and for now, the Sixers' return on investment has been lackluster, to say the least.
What’s Next: Disappointment
At this point, until we see it, there’s no point in believing it. I don’t need to beat it to death, but Embiid has to have a dominant playoff run—or at least get his Sixers to a point of real championship contention—or this is all a failure. While the addition of George has many feeling optimistic, he is a player in the summer of his career (and winter is coming) with a 53-61 playoff record. Add that to Embiid’s 29-30 career mark and their combined 82-91 playoff record doesn’t inspire much confidence. That’s before even mentioning that Sixers’ coach, Nick Nurse, is notorious for playing his stars heavy minutes during the regular season—Maxey was second in the league at 37.5 minutes per game last season (DeRozan – 37.8). Considering how injury-prone George and Embiid are, this just adds to why this Philadelphia situation doesn’t pass the smell test for me, especially not for this coming season.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Expect It to Click Immediately
One of the most maddening aspects of the current hyperbolic chamber of sports journalism is the inability to view change through a long lens. Rare is the offseason deal that takes a team from the first round straight to championship contention. That type of leap usually only happens when one of the league’s best players moves. George is very good, but he’s not that caliber of player. While the trio of George, Maxey, and Embiid makes a ton of sense stylistically, the actual functionality of the combination will take time—as these things nearly always do. More importantly, even if the chemistry clicks immediately and they are instantly the league’s best trio, the adjustment for all the other new faces will still take time and likely result in extreme highs and lows. Whether this Sixers group will live up to the lofty expectations remains to be seen (I’m not buying it), but it feels highly unlikely that they can live up to them in the very first year.
Is There Hope? We’ll See.
Everyone rushed to laud Philadelphia for their offseason, and while the retooling was impressive, we’ve seen this so many times before from Daryl Morey and this Sixers organization—winning the offseason only to disappoint come the postseason. More worrisome than the team’s recent history is the collective history of the players the Sixers recently acquired. Between Reggie Jackson, Kyle Lowry (who they added late last season), Eric Gordon, Andre Drummond, and Paul George, Philadelphia has five players with a combined 73 seasons under their belts. While the wear and tear on their bodies is a concern, it’s the where they haven’t been that is just as worrisome. Across those seven-plus decades of combined service, there are only two NBA Finals appearances among them (Lowry in ’19, Jackson in ’23). Add Joel Embiid’s 10 years, and that’s 83 seasons of basketball with just two championship opportunities. Yes, Philadelphia did everything they should have and could have done, but the heavy reliance on older, injury-prone players, along with the fact that George and Embiid have been two of the most notoriously enigmatic postseason performers, gives me great pause in feeling like this is ultimately anything more than the familiar Sixers retool, just to fool.
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