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#5 in the LBB team rankings
The challenge with evaluating Dallas is the question of whether last season’s results were reflective of a sustainable turn the team made following key additions at the trade deadline, or if it was a result of the Western Conference matchups lining up perfectly for Dallas to make a run to the Finals. (Also, does the answer to that question really matter, since most of the teams that reach the Finals have almost always been afforded some matchup luck along the way?) The Mavericks established an identity last season that perfectly melds around the personality and skills of their superstar. Whether that synergy works to the same level as last season may be too large an ask, but Dallas has something going that should make them a contention-level team for the foreseeable future.
#5 Dallas Mavericks
Record: 50-32 (tied-6th); 5th in the West; 100.60 Pace (7th); 117.0 Offensive Rating (8th); 114.9 Defensive Rating (18th); 2.1 Net Rating (15th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $188,879,925 (12th)
Cap Space: $-48,291,925 (19th)
Current Roster: Spencer Dinwiddie, Luka Dončić, Dante Exum, Daniel Gafford, Quentin Grimes, Jaden Hardy, Kyrie Irving, Maxi Kleber, Dereck Lively II, Naji Marshall, Markieff Morris, Dwight Powell, Oliver-Maxence Prosper, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington
Single Word Description: Heliocentric
Biggest Positive: Front Office
Look, as long as you have one of the league’s three best players, the answer is always that guy. However, what the Mavericks' front office has managed over the last two years warrants some serious recognition. This is a group led by Director of Basketball Operations Nico Harrison, who has been both bold and prudent, while also being willing to abandon poor decisions quickly enough to avoid paying too severely for their mistakes. Here’s a look at their most significant moves over the last two seasons. (Harrison actually hired Jason Kidd as well, but it wasn’t until the trade for Kyrie Irving that he really hit his stride.):
Traded for Kyrie Irving
Traded Cason Wallace and Davis Bertans for Dereck Lively II
Traded for Grant Williams
Signed Dante Exum
Signed Derrick Jones Jr.
Traded Grant Williams
Traded for Daniel Gafford
Traded for Klay Thompson
Traded for Quentin Grimes
This is obviously the Cliff's Notes of his most substantial moves since the beginning of the '23 season. There are a few other questionable trades, like adding Richaun Holmes, or some low-end signings that didn’t pan out. But for the most part, Harrison is riding a heater. More importantly, when he's missed—like with Williams or Holmes—he’s been quick and aggressive in getting whatever value he can for a rapidly deflating asset. Far too many front offices are plagued by hubris that causes them to delay accepting the harsh reality of missing on a pick or a signing. Harrison has seemed more than willing to accept when he's been wrong or when a player no longer fits, as was the case with Tim Hardaway Jr., whom Harrison packaged with four second-round picks in a salary dump trade with Detroit this summer. In that deal, Harrison pulled another savvy move by surprising everyone and getting Quentin Grimes back—a rotation player who should fit well into the Mavericks' defensive ecosystem.
Harrison's most important skill has been his ability to identify players who fit perfectly within what the organization has built around Luka. Derrick Jones Jr., Dante Exum, Derrick Lively II, and Daniel Gafford are perfect examples of recent additions who have fit as low-need, high-output players that are willing to play their roles without requiring much attention. That, of course, was why Grant Williams—a player whose skill set should have fit but whose personality didn’t—was quickly moved on from. After an active offseason that included some significant retooling with the additions of Naji Marshall, Grimes, and Klay Thompson, Dallas’ front office showed the type of flexibility that has been a linchpin of this group's reign.
Biggest Negative: Too Top Heavy Offensively
When you have one of the league's all-time greatest offensive hubs, it's easy for your attack to feel a bit one-dimensional at times. That has often been the case with Dallas' offense, which centers around Luka either breaking his man down in isolation—his 7.3 isolation possessions per game led the league—or attacking with the pick-and-roll—he ranked third at 12.0, behind only Brunson (13.2) and Mitchell (12.6)—creating for himself or shooters in the corner. Luka's supreme talent makes this work, but predictability and fatigue have made themselves apparent at times over the years. Fortunately for the Mavericks, the infusion of Kyrie Irving as a secondary creator has helped break up some of that offensive one-dimensionality. Still, the reality remains that Dallas is top-heavy in how they attack teams. Luka (33.9ppg) and Kyrie (25.6ppg) accounted for 50.4% of the team's scoring (117.9) last season. While they were able to ride that to much success, the lack of a reliable third option became apparent as the playoffs wore on, particularly as Kyrie struggled for much of the Finals. The addition of Klay Thompson should help alleviate some of the offensive workload, but if it’s not Klay, Dallas has to identify someone who can carry the offense for stretches without relying so heavily on Kyrie and Luka.
What’s Next: A Harsh Dose of Reality
The Mavericks' time is now. However, in a loaded Western Conference, the margins between success and failure are slim—just ask the Denver Nuggets. The chances that Dallas makes another run at the title are not great, and the chances that they improve on last season's run are even slimmer. Of the 78 NBA championships in league history, only 14 have been won by the team that was the runner-up the year before. Here's the list:
-’55 Syracuse Nationals
-’58 St. Louis Hawks
-’59 Boston Celtics
-’73 New York Knicks
-‘79 Seattle Supersonics
-’83 Philadelphia 76ers
-’86 Boston Celtics
-’89 Detroit Pistons
-’09 Los Angeles Lakers
-’12 Miami Heat
-’14 San Antonio Spurs
-’16 Cleveland Cavaliers
-’17 Golden State Warriors
That means only 18% of the time has that occurred in league history. Now, the only measure of a successful season for Dallas shouldn’t be solely winning a title—that’s too lofty a goal to place on a team that still has some fit and scheme issues to figure out. However, considering where they are on their timeline, anything less will likely feel like a letdown. The burden of expectation is a bridle that either builds muscle or causes collapse. This season, the Mavericks are going to find out how the fit works for them.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Get Caught Up In An MVP Race
Luka Dončić is going to win a Michael Jordan Award at some point, perhaps as soon as this season. However, the Mavericks have more important priorities over the next few years. With Kyrie Irving entering his 14th season, as injury- and drama-prone as he has been in the past, the Mavericks need to be hyper-focused on capitalizing on their current championship window. The sign-and-trade deal for Klay Thompson seems a clear indication that they are. However, my concern is whether the team can convince Luka to scale back his offensive workload a bit, even if that means potentially sacrificing a run at individual accolades. This isn’t to suggest Luka is selfish, but it's difficult to convince a young and immensely talented player who hasn't tasted MVP glory to prioritize team goals over individual ones. This is particularly true for Luka, who consistently puts up numbers that automatically place him in the MVP conversation each year. Managing the ego aspect—especially if Luka is contending with players like Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Jalen Brunson, all potential first-time MVP winners themselves—will be a challenge for coach Jason Kidd.
Luka’s nagging lower extremity issues toward the end of last season reflect the toll of a heavy workload. Considering he hasn’t made significant changes to his playing weight, the only other way to offset this pattern is to lessen his workload during the season. That may lead to diminished stats—though, given Luka’s usual averages, it’s like telling a billionaire they need to part with a few million for the sake of greater long-term value.
Is There Hope? Little Doubt…
We’re at the point in the rankings where hope is readily available, as all of these teams are title contenders. The Mavericks came the closest to taking home the Larry O’Brien trophy last season, so the standard for hope is high heading into this year. The key question will be whether Dallas can continue to be the defensive unit they were in the latter part of last season. With the loss of Derrick Jones Jr., it will be crucial for Luka to show the type of defensive effort he flashed in spurts during the postseason—though not what we saw in the Finals. Given his offensive workload, no one expects him to be a plus-defender, but he needs to be locked in enough to avoid being a liability. Still, based on their performance over the last half of the NBA season, the Mavericks have as much reason for immediate optimism as any team in the league.
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