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#6 in the LBB team rankings
Alright y’all, we’re getting down to the wire, but we’re going to land this plane, even if it means coming in hot. Number six on my rankings was actually number five before making their big trade last week. While the deal shifts my top-end expectations a bit, Minnesota will still be a force this year, and as long as they have Anthony Edwards, I’m willing to bet on them for years to come as well.
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 56-26 (4th); 3rd in the West; 97.79 Pace (23rd); 114.6 Offensive Rating (17th); 108.4 (Defensive Rating); 6.3 Net Rating (3rd)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $237,706,956 (1st)
Cap Space: $-97,118,956 (30th)
Current Roster: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Keita Bates-Diop, Mike Conley, Donte DiVincenzo, Rob Dillingham, P.J. Dozier, Antohny Edwards, Luka Garza, Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles, Skylar Mays, Jaden McDaniels, Leaonard Miller, Josh Minott, Eugene Omoruyi, Julius Randle, Naz Reid Terrence Shannon Jr.
Single Word Description: Disruptive
Biggest Positive: Defense
We have talked about it plenty, but I’ve never been someone who loves the long ball. I love watching pitchers deal and am completely content with a nice 1-0 game. So, the Timberwolves' brand of rugged and swarming defense last season was a siren song for my sports sensibilities. Minnesota didn’t just have the best scoring defense in the league last season, they had it by a wide margin. The Timberwolves’ 2.2-point lead in defensive rating over the second-place Knicks was the same margin of difference that the Knicks had over the 10th-place Rockets. The Timberwolves featured five players in the top 20 in defensive rating (Gobert – 1st, Towns – 7th, Edwards – 9th, Conley – 16th, McDaniels – 17th). While we know defensive rating is a bit misleading, as it is in many ways a reflection of the players you share the floor with—as an example, Josh Giddey, who is not a good defender, was ranked 18th last year—the numbers in this case just support the eye test. Minnesota played a stifling and physical brand of defense that separated them from everyone else last season.
The tip of the Wolves' defensive spear is Rudy Gobert, who had a renaissance last season, as the 11-year veteran looked as mobile as ever and was really impressive in his ability to cover ground. Additionally, with McDaniels, Walker-Alexander, and Conley, Minnesota has some of the best defensive players at their positions in the league. Of course, the biggest difference-maker defensively is Anthony Edwards. I don’t mean to say that he is their best defender, but having a superstar who buys in on that end and gives the level of defensive effort that Edwards does is the type of top-down leadership that fosters an organizational identity. Also, to Edwards’ credit, last season was his best defensively, as he settled more into exploiting his immense physical gifts as a stolid on-ball defender and spent less time gambling for the home run play.
Biggest Negative: Continuity
The reality of the new NBA collective bargaining agreement has already hit several teams hard. Perhaps none more so than Minnesota, who, after making a surprising run to the Western Conference Finals, were forced to deal the second-best player in the history of their franchise. I’m a big proponent of the importance of consistency breeding success, so the type of changes that the Timberwolves went through this offseason always makes me a little nervous. Particularly because, in the Timberwolves' case, it felt like they should have given that group at least one more run together. The brass tacks of the move are completely understandable, but it concerns me how much Minnesota is going to have to reshape itself in real-time this season. With Ant, the team will be fine in the long run, but the Towns trade is a big bet in the short term.
What’s Next: A Lot More Changes
In trading Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks, the Timberwolves didn’t just make the splashiest deal of the offseason, they also sent a signal that they are fully aware of the difficulty of their cap situation. This Timberwolves group is the most expensive in the league, and as an asset-poor team with a convoluted ownership situation, being repeat offenders in the second apron is going to make Tim Connelly’s job quite difficult in the coming year or two—depending on whether he opts out of his own contract at the end of the season.
Minnesota is an odd paradox in that they are a relatively young group with a superstar who is still three years from his prime, but because of the structuring of the team, and Edwards early arrival in the upper echelons of players in the league, they are as win-now as anybody in the NBA. This is especially true because as we have already seen with the Towns move, they don’t have a long runway for keeping this core together.
Mike Conley, at 37, remains an impactful player, but the list of point guards that can still bring it nightly after the age of 35 is not long. Gobert surprised us all with how good he looked last season, but at 32, there will come a point where, if he loses a step, the whole package becomes compromised. In addition, there is little reason to expect that Minnesota fits the bill for Randle, Reid, and Gobert, who all could be free agents this summer—though I would bet on only Randle and Reid declining their player options and potentially exploring the market.
This is a Wolves roster that is already looking to integrate three new players into their primary rotation in DiVincenzo, Randle, and Dillingham—and it could be four if Shannon Jr. can work his way into the ten-man rotation—right after having made a deep playoff run. They are also likely to lose some combination of Conley (if he retires), Reid, Gobert, Randle, or Alexander-Walker come next summer. That’s just a lot of foundational change for a group that should be trying to build cohesion but is instead constantly having to rework the faces in the huddle.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Get Too Iso-Oriented
Anthony Edwards made big strides last season in terms of his passing, not only setting a new career high in assists per game (5.1) but also clearly understanding when to give up the ball early as defenses blitzed him. Still, Edwards also had a career-high 31.4% usage, good for ninth in the league. Julius Randle, who only appeared in 46 games, also had a career-high 29.9% usage, which would have been good for 16th in the league last season had he qualified. That means Minnesota enters this season as the only team in the league with two players who would have ranked in the top 20 in usage. While both players have shown themselves to be adept passers, they each like to work with the ball in their hands. This may particularly present a problem where Randle is concerned, because in replacing KAT, there is a massive fall-off in shooting.
The answer, of course, may be to try to stagger the two as much as possible, allowing Randle to be the offensive hub against opponents’ second units. Still, it will be interesting to monitor how Randle adjusts his game in lineups where he and Edwards share the floor. To Randle’s credit, he has proven to be a very adaptable player, and having played with Jalen Brunson the last few years, he’s familiar with ball-dominant guards. However, the reason the Knicks dealt him was because of fit issues, as Randle is just not a great catch-and-shoot player.
Is There Hope?: Yes, But It’s Hard Not to Have Some Concerns
The Timberwolves exploded onto the scene last year with a unit centered around their blossoming superstar and a defensive identity. None of that should change this year, but because of the trades and subsequent contracts that got the team to this point, they are in a difficult financial situation. As we’ve already seen with the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns, they are contending with the reality that they are too expensive of a roster to keep together for the long haul. While I like the Towns deal in terms of the depth it added to the roster, getting two starting-caliber players for the price of one, it is also the type of move that shifts the core of a team. Now, with Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Rudy Gobert all coming up on player options for 2025-26 and Nickeil Alexander-Walker being a straight-up unrestricted free agent next summer, this Minnesota team is looking at potentially a lot more roster upheaval over the next 365 days. While I fully trust Tim Connelly’s decision-making and ability to be creative and flexible in retooling, the lack of cohesion for such a young group will still present challenges.
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Thank you and I completely agree. They were a revelation last season and I should have included how much I like the DiVincenzo fit.
Great article. I look forward to watch the T'Wolves this year. They were one of my favorite teams last season. I do believe that with the addition of DiVicenzo, they will get more depth in shooting the 3. Curious to watch Rob Dillingham as well.