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#3 in the LBB team rankings
While this is my first go-round with ranking teams—as evidenced by the glacial pace with which we have finally come upon the conclusion—one rule I think may have already solidified: If you have the best player in the world, you’re a top-five team. With Jokic, the Nuggets need not worry much in terms of being relatively competitive. Fortunately, in Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and even Michael Porter Jr., Denver has a good enough assemblage to convince themselves that they are title contenders for as long as that group remains intact. While the concerns with some of the other members of the roster continue to build upon themselves, I’m inclined to agree, as Joker is just the ultimate trump card.
#3 Denver Nuggets
Record: 57-25 (2nd); 1st in the West; 97.43 Pace (26th); 117.8 Offensive Rating (5th); 112.3 Defensive Rating (8th); 5.5 Net Rating (4th)
Total Salary Cap Allocations: $194,648,921 (8th)
Cap Space: $-54,060,921 (23rd)
Current Roster: Christian Braun, Vlatko Čančar, Aaron Gordon, DaRon Holmes II, Nikola Jokič, DeAndre Jordan, Jamal Murray. Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett, Michael Porter Jr., Dario Šarič, Julina Strawther, Hunter Tyson, Peyton Watson, Russell Westbrook
Single Word Description: Unworried
Biggest Positive: Nikola Jokič
Typically, this is where I would make some comment about how the choice for the biggest positive is always the best player, and that’s why I zagged by picking... blah, blah, blah. Here’s the thing: if you’re the undisputed heavyweight champion of the league in terms of the best individual player, if you are a recent champion, a three-time MVP, and one of the 20 best players to ever play the game of basketball, and you’re right in the middle of your prime, you are more or less the only thing that matters for your franchise. That may be extreme, but considering the platinum-level floor raiser that Joker is, along with his durability and consistently obscene stat lines, he is the most important singular player in the league. That title may be relinquished very quickly considering what I expect from Wemby, but for now, Jokić is an NBA championship contender unto himself.
In the history of the NBA, there have only been four occasions in which a player has posted averages of at least 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists, while shooting at least 55% from the floor and 33% from distance. All four of those occasions have been Nikola Jokić’s last four seasons! Three of which he won the MVP (’21,’22, and ’24) and one of which he finished second in voting because we feel the need to overthink the award and find some narrative-based reason to not just give it to the player that is clearly most deserving (’23). Here’s a look at just how insane Joker’s last four seasons have been:
’21: 26.4ppg, 10.8rpg, 8.3apg, 56.6%fg, 38.8%3-pt
’22: 27.1ppg, 13.8rpg, 7.9apg, 58.3%fg, 33.7%3-pt
’23: 24.5ppg, 11.8rpg, 9.8apg, 63.2%fg, 38.3%3-pt
’24: 26.4ppg, 12.4rpg, 9.0apg, 58.3%fg, 35.9%3-pt
I know Luka stans love to point to his gaudy numbers as well, but aside from the fact that Jokić is a significantly better defensive player—something that bears out in both metrics and the eye test—the efficiency for Jokić, especially considering that he operates as a three-level scorer from the center position, is just absolutely insane and is a mark of distinction in any conversation of his peers. Additionally, because Joker is such a smart passer and orchestrates things by moving the ball quickly, he posts all those gaudy numbers while being, on average, the 27th-highest ranked player in the league in terms of usage percentage over the course of those four seasons. Meaning that Joker doesn’t need to monopolize the ball the way Luka, Giannis or Shai does. Hell, last season, he was just the fourth-highest rated center in usage, behind Embiid, Wemby, and Jaren Jackson Jr.
I know we live in an era where contrarianism has become some weird badge of honor, and I get that sports adoration by its very nature is bathed in subjectivity, but I just can’t suffer any arguments against Jokić being the best player of his generation.
Biggest Negative: Bench
I didn’t love the Nuggets' offseason. I know concerns about the second apron were the reason behind Denver letting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sign with Orlando, and while I think the Magic overpaid significantly for the product, it’s hard to ignore that Denver has lost key pieces of their core in consecutive seasons, with the departure of Bruce Brown two summers ago and then KCP this past summer. General Manager Calvin Booth has been preparing for these departures by trying to bolster the Nuggets’ roster with young, athletic draft selections, but one of the challenges of being consistently good is that you are consistently drafting in the latter part of the first round. That’s difficult territory to regularly find players who can produce at a high enough level to contribute to a championship-caliber team—unless, of course, you’re the San Antonio Spurs of two decades ago. The loss of DaRon Holmes to an Achilles tear in Summer League was even more gutting because Denver drafted him with the intention of contributing immediately.
In Dario Šarić and Russell Westbrook, the Nuggets added players who can produce in spurts, but neither player can be relied upon come playoff time. More worrisome, Šarić (8.0), Westbrook (11.0), and Peyton Watson (6.7) are the only players on Denver’s bench who averaged five or more points per game last season.
Jokić, of course, is the equalizer here, as his virtuosic passing is the ultimate floor-raiser. However, it bothered me when Booth openly acknowledged this when discussing how the team is managing roster building. Don’t get me wrong, the candor was refreshing, but hearing it said aloud was like the aural equivalent of a record needle scratch. That may be unfair, and it’s not to imply that Booth doesn’t care about building around Jokić, but the burden of constantly lifting up players whose talent floor starts lower and lower could wear out the NBA’s best player. This is particularly concerning considering the way the Nuggets went out in last season’s Game 7 against Minnesota, with Jokić looking drunk form exhaustion in the second half.
All of this is to say that the departure of KCP further hurts an already thin bench, as now Christian Braun has to step up as a starter, and the Nuggets have to hope that Julian Strawther or Jalen Pickett can provide some minutes to round out the bench depth for a Denver team that already ranked just 25th in the NBA in bench scoring last season.
What’s Next: Steady As She Goes
With Denver having just made a huge investment by re-signing Jamal Murray to a 4-year, $208 million extension that begins next year, and their cap situation not allowing for much flexibility, there’s no real reason to expect too much change from the current course. While last year felt like a bit of a failure, Denver was in position to return to the Western Conference Finals before running out of gas against a Minnesota team that was constructed with the intent of defeating the Nuggets. The Nuggets have their core in place and will see if some of the players they’re hoping to step up can fill the gaps in a roster that has been consistently depleted over the last few seasons. However, I would be shocked if much changed at the core for at least the next year.
What They Shouldn’t Do: Wait Too Long on Michael Porter Jr.
In many ways, Michael Porter Jr. is the perfect complement to Nikola Jokić. He’s a knockdown shooter, both on the move and on the catch, who can square up to the basket from nearly any position on the floor, meaning he gets a clean look no matter where the pass is coming from. That’s not to imply Jokić throws many errant passes, but Porter Jr.’s skills offer a nice safety net for the occasional dish that’s been served with a bit too much sauce. But much like many of my past relationships, these two things can be true at once: He can seem like a great fit, yet he could also be the exact person that needs to go.
As the third most expensive player on a franchise known for its tight pocketbook, Porter Jr.’s production doesn’t match the cost. MPJ is in the third year of a 5-year, $179,299,750 contract that pays him an average of $35 million a season. Porter Jr. averaged 16.7 points per game last season, ranking 60th in the league, wedged between Bogdan Bogdanović (16.9), who makes $16 million this season, and James Harden (16.6), who also makes $35 million but is infinitely more productive than Porter Jr. Other players in the same scoring range last season include Tobias Harris (17.2 ppg, $26 million), Myles Turner (17.1 ppg, $20.5 million), Jarrett Allen (16.5 ppg, $20 million), and Austin Reaves (15.9 ppg, $13.5 million).
Sure, the Nuggets signed Porter Jr. to that contract because they were betting on his continued development, and while he has improved—particularly as a defender, where he’s gone from woeful to just meh—the expansion of his abilities has not reached the level the contract was presuming. Last year, his sixth in the league (though he missed his entire first season following back surgery), Porter Jr. averaged his third-lowest points (16.7) and made threes per game (2.7), his fourth-lowest field goal percentage (48.4%) and three-point percentage (39.7%), while attempting his second-most field goals per game (13.3) and playing his most minutes per contest (31.7). While he did average an encouraging 7.0 rebounds per game and played the most games of his career (81), he continued to be a gravitic anomaly, averaging a meager 1.5 assists per game and sporting just a 6.4% assist rate, per Cleaning the Glass. What this tells me is that, six seasons in, this is the player Porter Jr. is.
The truth about Porter Jr. is that he would put up better numbers in a system more focused around his talents, though those numbers would likely have some empty calories, as his limitations as a driver make him ill-suited to be a primary option. I imagine if MPJ were given the reins of an offense, it would look similar to when another former Nugget, Jerami Grant, ventured out on his own in Detroit. That being said, 26-year-old, 6’10” shooters don’t hit the market often, and it would behoove the Nuggets to see if they can break him into multiple pieces that could better fit Denver’s needs for depth. From the Nuggets’ perspective, if they were entering this season with Brown and KCP instead of Porter Jr., I think most of us would actually feel better about that roster than the one we are getting this season from Denver.
Is There Hope?: As Long As The Joker Is Laughing
Nikola Jokić is the type of generational player who keeps your franchise in contention in perpetuity. But with Jokić, there’s always that weird undercurrent of potential disinterest that makes you wonder if one day he might just decide to abandon it all. Perhaps that does a disservice to his competitive nature, but would any of us be surprised if, on some random July morning, we get “Sham Bammed” (I’m workshopping it) by an announcement that Jokić has decided he’s officially more interested in reins than rings and has decided to hang them up? That nagging fear in the back of my mind is constantly there when I try to predict what Denver will look like over the next five seasons. If Jokić plays that long, he’ll still only be 34, and since his game isn’t based on fast-twitch athleticism, there’s little reason to think he won’t remain dominant. Yet, even as I write this, something tells me I’m projecting my hopes more than presenting my expectations. The moment the burden of the game outweighs the enjoyment, I think Joker will just walk off into the Serbian sunset, never to be heard from again.
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